Australian public anxiety over national security threats and government preparedness
Consensus Summary
Australian public anxiety about national security has surged significantly, with over 68% of Australians expecting the country to face foreign military conflict within five years according to the Australian National Universityâs National Security College report. The surveys, conducted between late 2024 and early 2026, reveal that 45% believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is probable, while 72% now view terrorism as a serious threat after the Bondi Beach attack. Over 85% of respondents consider multiple risksâincluding climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, and economic crisesâas likely threats. Despite these concerns, most Australians feel the government shares too little information and the nation is underprepared. The study highlights generational differences, with young adults (18â24) showing a sharp rise in anxiety from 22% to 55%. Experts like Professor Rory Medcalf emphasize the need for clearer communication without causing panic. While all sources agree on the scale of public concern, minor discrepancies exist in exact percentages and additional context like fuel supply disruptions from the Middle East war.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National Universityâs National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, supplemented by 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions
- 68â72% of Australians surveyed in 2025â2026 believe Australia will be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years
- 45% of Australians surveyed in July 2025 consider a foreign military attack on Australian soil âprobableâ or âvery likelyâ within five years
- Concerns about terrorism rose from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in February 2026 following the Bondi Beach terror attack on December 14, 2025
- More than 85% of respondents believe climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions are âmore likely than notâ to affect Australia in the next five years
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated the public wants clearer communication from government on security threats but warns against panic-inducing information
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict (which began February 28, 2026) and the Israel-Iran war (mentioned in Guardian as disrupting fuel supplies)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting, though this is not mentioned in other sources
- The survey explicitly states it was conducted before the current Iran conflict broke out, while other sources only mention it began on February 28, 2026
- The ABC notes that 70% of Australians expect military conflict within five years, while other sources cite 68â72%
- The ABC highlights that fewer than one in five respondents thought Australia was âveryâ or âfullyâ prepared for any of the 15 listed threats
- The ABC mentions that politicians and the media are seen as untrustworthy, with politicians considered âexploiting fearsâ and the media âexploiting security concernsâ
- The NEWSCOMAU report emphasizes that 85â89% of respondents believe multiple threats (climate change, AI attacks, disinformation, etc.) are âmore likely than notâ to affect Australia, while other sources round this to 85% or more
- The source explicitly states the survey period included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions, which is not detailed in other sources
- The SBS headline focuses specifically on âglobal wars driving national security fears among young Australians,â which is not emphasized in other sources
- The Guardian notes that six oil ships bound for Australia were cancelled or deferred due to the latest Middle East war, with federal energy minister Chris Bowen confirming âbumps in supplyâ ahead, which is not mentioned in other sources
- The Guardian states that 43% of respondents deem a foreign military attack would have âmajor consequencesâ and 36% regard it as âcatastrophic,â a breakdown not provided in other sources
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The ABC states 70% of Australians expect military conflict within five years, while NEWSCOMAU and the Guardian report 68â72%
- The ABC reports that 45% expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil, but the Guardian does not specify this exact percentage for onshore attacks
- The Guardian mentions a foreign military attack would have âmajor consequencesâ for 43% and âcatastrophicâ for 36%, while other sources do not provide this level of detail
- The ABC notes that 72% of Australians considered terrorism a serious threat in February 2026, but the Guardian does not specify the exact percentage for this timeframe
- The Guardian highlights the Middle East warâs impact on fuel supplies and oil ship cancellations, which is not referenced in other sources
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