Australian public anxiety over national security threats and government preparedness
Consensus Summary
Australian public anxiety about national security has surged significantly, with over two-thirds of Australians now listing it as a major concern according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College. The survey of 20000 participants found that 69 percent expect Australia to be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, while 45 percent believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is probable. Concerns about terrorism have also spiked to 72 percent after the Bondi Beach attack, and most Australians feel unprepared for threats like economic crises, AI attacks, and supply disruptions. The study highlights a generational shift, with young adults aged 18-24 showing a dramatic increase in worry from 22 percent to 55 percent over the survey period. Experts like Professor Rory Medcalf warn that the public’s realistic assessment of risks demands better government communication and resilience planning, though trust in security agencies remains high while skepticism lingers toward politicians and media. The findings coincide with real-world disruptions, such as oil supply chain issues linked to the Middle East conflict, underscoring the public’s heightened sensitivity to global instability.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College surveyed over 20,000 Australians between November 2024 and February 2026, with data collected before the US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026.
- 69% of Australians surveyed in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, with 45% expecting a foreign military attack on Australian soil during the same period.
- Concerns about terrorism rose sharply from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach terror attack on December 14, 2025.
- More than 85% of respondents considered climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions as likely threats within the next decade.
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that most Australians feel the country is unprepared for multiple security shocks and want more transparent communication from government.
- The survey found that 55% of 18-24-year-olds expressed concern about national security in February 2026, up from 22% in November 2024.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting, though the survey data was collected before the Iran conflict broke out.
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, with fewer than one in five believing Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them.
- The Australian Federal Police (AFP) and ASIO were found to have high trust and credibility, while politicians and media were seen as exploiting security concerns.
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for a 'national conversation about preparedness' to build confidence and resilience, not to generate panic.
- The report highlights a dramatic rise in national security fears among young Australians, with no additional specific data beyond the headline.
- The study found that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack as having 'major consequences,' while 36% rated it as 'catastrophic.'
- The survey was conducted in three waves: November 2024, July 2025, and February 2026, with the latest data collected before the Iran conflict.
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions alongside the 20,000 surveys.
- The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, was quoted about disruptions to oil shipments due to the Middle East war, though this was not part of the survey data.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC and NewsCorp Australia both report 69% of Australians expecting foreign military conflict involvement, but the Guardian states 68% for July 2025 (a minor discrepancy).
- The Guardian reports 43% of respondents rated a foreign military attack as having 'major consequences,' while ABC does not provide this specific breakdown of perceived impact severity.
- NewsCorp Australia mentions the inclusion of 480 interviews and 100 public submissions, which are not referenced in other sources.
- The Guardian and ABC both cite the 45% figure for foreign military attack expectations, but only the Guardian specifies that this was asked in July 2025, while ABC does not specify the exact timing for this statistic.
- The Guardian notes that a foreign military attack was rated the 'greatest concern' by respondents, a detail not explicitly mentioned in ABC or NewsCorp Australia.
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