Australian public anxiety over national security threats and perceived government unpreparedness
Consensus Summary
Australian public anxiety about national security has surged significantly, with over 20,000 people surveyed by the Australian National University’s National Security College revealing widespread concerns. Key findings include 69% of Australians expecting military conflict involvement within five years and 45% believing a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely. Terrorism fears spiked to 72% after the Bondi attack, while over 85% see climate change, AI threats, disinformation, economic crises, and supply disruptions as probable within the next decade. Most respondents feel the country is underprepared, with distrust in government communication and politicians, though security agencies like ASIO and AFP retain high credibility. The surveys, conducted before the US/Iran conflict, highlight generational differences, particularly among young adults aged 18-24, who show heightened concern. While all sources agree on the scale of anxiety, minor discrepancies exist in exact percentages and specific dates of events, but the overall narrative of rising insecurity and perceived government inadequacy remains consistent.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College surveyed over 20,000 Australians between November 2024 and February 2026 regarding national security concerns.
- 69% of Australians expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years (ABC, Guardian, News.com.au).
- 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely within five years (ABC, Guardian, News.com.au).
- 72% of Australians consider domestic terrorism a serious threat in February 2026, up from 55% in November 2024 (ABC, News.com.au).
- The Bondi terror attack in December 2025 contributed to heightened concerns about terrorism (ABC, News.com.au).
- Over 85% of respondents believe climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions are likely within the next five years (Guardian, News.com.au).
- Professor Rory Medcalf is the head of the Australian National University’s National Security College (ABC, Guardian, News.com.au).
- More than half of Australians believe the country is not prepared for foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions (Guardian, News.com.au).
- The survey was conducted before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026 (ABC, News.com.au).
- The survey included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions (News.com.au).
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting (ABC).
- Nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, and 45% expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil (ABC).
- Two in three Australians considered it likely that the country would experience ‘unprecedented’ natural disasters or another global pandemic (ABC).
- The survey did not suggest specific countries that might pose a threat, nor did it ask respondents to name countries (ABC).
- In late 2024, a little over half of Australians considered terrorism a serious threat, but that jumped to 72% by February 2026 (ABC).
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, ranging from a foreign military attack to economic crises or another global pandemic (ABC).
- Fewer than one in five of those surveyed thought Australia was ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared for any of the 15 threats (ABC).
- Australians surveyed expressed concern that too little information is shared by governments on national security threats, with politicians considered untrustworthy and the media thought to exploit fears (ABC).
- Security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) were found to have high levels of trust and credibility (ABC).
- The study was conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, including surveys in November 2024, July 2025, and February 2026 (Guardian).
- The sharpest increase in national security anxiety was among 18 to 24-year-olds, from 22% in November 2024 to 55% in February 2026 (Guardian).
- Three in five Australians were now worried about national security in 2026 (Guardian).
- Lowest on the list of events that Australians considered likely was an onshore attack by a foreign military, but 45% still considered that eventuality either likely, very likely, or almost certain within half a decade (Guardian).
- Such an attack was rated the greatest concern, with 43% of respondents deeming it would have ‘major consequences’ and 36% regarding it ‘catastrophic’ (Guardian).
- The study’s release comes as the latest Middle East war disrupted global fuel supplies, sending prices skyrocketing (Guardian).
- Federal energy minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred (Guardian).
- The report is based on data collected from more than 20,000 surveys, 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions (News.com.au).
- Survey results from July 2025 found 68% of people considered it ‘more likely than not’ Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict in the next five years (News.com.au).
- A cumulative picture is of a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more (News.com.au).
- The report suggests the findings are both a challenge and an opportunity for those in a position to meet it (News.com.au).
- The report shows a dramatic rise in the number of young Australians worried about national security (SBS).
- Global wars are driving national security fears among young Australians (SBS).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states that 70% of Australians expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, while News.com.au reports 69% (ABC vs. News.com.au).
- ABC mentions that fewer than one in five respondents thought Australia was ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared for any of the 15 threats, but News.com.au does not specify the exact percentage of respondents who felt unprepared for specific threats.
- Guardian states that the lowest concern was an onshore attack by a foreign military, but ABC and News.com.au do not explicitly rank concerns in this manner.
- ABC and News.com.au both mention the Bondi terror attack in December 2025, but ABC specifies December 2024, while News.com.au specifies December 2025.
- Guardian mentions that the survey was conducted before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, but ABC does not specify the exact date of the conflict’s start.
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