Rising national security anxiety among Australians amid perceived threats and government preparedness concerns
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged significantly over 2024–2026, with over 60% of Australians polled by the Australian National University’s National Security College now viewing foreign military conflict and domestic threats as likely within five years. The study, involving 20,000+ respondents and conducted before the US/Iran conflict, found 45% believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is probable, while 69% expect Australia to become involved in overseas military action. Worry over terrorism spiked to 72% after the Bondi Beach attack in December 2025, and over 85% of respondents rated climate change, AI threats, disinformation, and economic crises as likely by the end of the decade. Most Australians feel unprepared for these risks and demand clearer government communication, though trust in security agencies remains high. The findings highlight a public increasingly aware of converging global risks but skeptical of national resilience, urging policymakers to address both preparedness and transparency.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, with additional focus groups and interviews
- 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, with 68% (July 2025) and 69% (Guardian) considering it likely or almost certain
- 45% of Australians (July 2025) considered a foreign military attack on Australian soil likely, very likely, or almost certain within five years
- Worry over domestic terrorism increased from 55% in November 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025
- More than 85% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were likely by the end of the decade
- Over half of Australians surveyed felt the country was slightly prepared or not at all prepared for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions
- Professor Rory Medcalf (ANU National Security College) stated the findings showed deep concern and a desire for more information from governments
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found three in five Australians were now worried about national security, with the sharpest increase among 18 to 24-year-olds (55% in 2026, up from 22% in November 2024)
- Australians feared AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises—all rated as likely by 85% or more respondents
- 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas likely to almost certain within five years
- The study was conducted in three waves: November 2024, July 2025, and February 2026
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, causing supply disruptions
- No additional specific details beyond the headline 'Global wars driving national security fears among young Australians'
- Australians expressed concern that too little information is shared by governments about national security threats, with politicians considered untrustworthy and the media thought to exploit fears
- Security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and ASIO were found to have high levels of trust and credibility, but politicians and the media were seen by some to be exploiting security concerns
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for clearer communication from government to avoid panic or hysteria, noting the public wants more information but fears poorly managed releases
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, ranging from a foreign military attack to economic crises or another global pandemic, with fewer than one in five thinking Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions across the country, in addition to the 20,000 surveys
- The cumulative picture from the report was described as a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more
- The report explicitly stated the findings were based on data collected prior to the current US/Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states 69% of Australians considered military conflict likely in July 2025, while ABC and News.com.au both report 68% for the same timeframe
- No contradictions found regarding the 45% figure for foreign military attack likelihood on Australian soil
- No contradictions found regarding the 72% terrorism concern increase post-Bondi attack
- No contradictions found regarding the 85%+ likelihood of climate change, AI, disinformation, and economic crises
- No contradictions found regarding the ANU study’s timeline or methodology (all sources agree on November 2024–February 2026)
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