Rising national security anxiety among Australians amid perceived threats and government preparedness concerns
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged dramatically according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College, which surveyed over 20000 people between November 2024 and February 2026. The data reveals that nearly half of Australians believe a foreign military attack is likely within five years, while 68 to 70 percent think Australia will become involved in a foreign conflict. Concerns about terrorism also spiked after the Bondi Beach attack in December 2025, with 72 percent now viewing it as a serious threat. Beyond military threats, over 85 percent of respondents consider climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions as probable within the same period. The study highlights a widespread belief that Australia is underprepared for these challenges, with fewer than one in five respondents feeling the country is ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared. Professor Rory Medcalf emphasized that Australians are seeking more transparent communication from the government, though some distrust politicians and media for exploiting security fears. The findings coincide with global instability, including the recent US-Iran conflict and disruptions to oil supplies, underscoring public apprehension about multiple converging risks.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys and consultations between November 2024 and February 2026, involving over 20,000 Australians, 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions across the country
- In July 2025, 68% of Australians surveyed considered it ‘more likely than not’ that Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years
- By February 2026, 45% of Australians believed a foreign military attack on Australia was ‘probable’ or ‘very likely’ within five years
- Concerns about terrorism threats rose sharply from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025
- More than 85% of respondents in 2026 believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were ‘more likely than not’ to affect Australia in the next five years
- The survey data was collected prior to the US/Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that Australians are concerned about national security and want more information from the government
- Less than one in five respondents thought Australia was ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared for any of the 15 listed threats, including foreign military attacks, economic crises, or pandemics
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Headline focuses on ‘young Australians’ specifically, emphasizing a ‘dramatic rise’ in national security fears among them
- Explicitly states 85 to 89% of respondents believed multiple threats (climate change, AI attacks, etc.) were ‘more likely than not’ to affect Australia, while SBS and Guardian only mention ‘more than 85%’
- Details that 69% of respondents in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a foreign military conflict ‘likely to almost certain’ within five years, while other sources round this to 68% or 70%
- Specifies that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack on Australia would have ‘major consequences,’ and 36% rated it ‘catastrophic’
- Mentions that six oil ships bound for Australia were cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, with Chris Bowen (federal energy minister) confirming supply disruptions
- States that ‘lowest on the list’ of likely threats was an onshore foreign military attack, though 45% still considered it likely
- Reports that 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, while other sources round this to 68-70%
- Highlights that ‘politicians were considered untrustworthy and the media thought to exploit fears’ in national security communication
- Specifies that security agencies like the AFP and ASIO were seen as highly trustworthy, while politicians and media were distrusted
- Notes that the survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, with fewer than one in five thinking Australia was ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared for any of them
- Includes a direct quote from Rory Medcalf emphasizing the ‘burden on government’ to address preparedness and resilience
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- NEWSCOMAU states 85 to 89% of respondents believed multiple threats were ‘more likely than not,’ while SBS and GUARDIAN only mention ‘more than 85%’ without specifying the exact range
- ABC reports that 70% of Australians expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, while NEWSCOMAU and GUARDIAN report 68-69% for this figure
- NEWSCOMAU specifies that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack on Australia would have ‘major consequences,’ while GUARDIAN does not provide this breakdown
- ABC states that ‘politicians were considered untrustworthy and the media thought to exploit fears,’ a detail not mentioned in SBS, NEWSCOMAU, or GUARDIAN
- NEWSCOMAU includes specific details about the Middle East war’s impact on oil supply (six ships cancelled), while other sources do not mention this
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