Rising national security anxiety among Australians ahead of potential foreign military conflict and crises
Consensus Summary
A series of articles from multiple sources reveal a significant rise in national security anxiety among Australians, with over 45% believing a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely within five years. The Australian National University’s National Security College report, based on over 20,000 surveys and consultations conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, highlights that nearly two-thirds of Australians now list national security as a concern, particularly among young adults aged 18 to 24, whose worries surged from 22% to 55%. The study, completed before the current US/Iran conflict, found that 69% of respondents in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a foreign military conflict likely within five years. Beyond military threats, over 85% of Australians anticipate climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions as likely by the end of the decade. Most Australians feel unprepared for these threats and want more transparent communication from the government, though they also express concerns about panic or distrust in institutions. The Bondi Beach terror attack in December 2025 further heightened fears of domestic terrorism, with concerns rising from 55% to 72%. While all sources agree on the overall trend of rising anxiety, specific details like the perceived severity of a foreign military attack and the exact phrasing of certain threats vary slightly between articles.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys and consultations between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, including 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions.
- In July 2025, 69% of Australians surveyed considered it likely to almost certain that Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years.
- By February 2026, 45% of Australians believed a foreign military attack on Australian soil was likely, very likely, or almost certain within five years.
- Concerns about terrorism rose sharply from 55% in November 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025.
- More than 85% of respondents in 2026 believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were likely by the end of the decade.
- Over 50% of Australians felt the country was either slightly prepared or not at all prepared for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions.
- The study was completed before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026.
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that Australians are concerned about national security and want more information from the government.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The Guardian notes that 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas likely to almost certain within five years.
- The Guardian highlights that 85% or more respondents believed AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises were likely by the end of the decade.
- The Guardian mentions that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% regarded it as 'catastrophic.'
- The Guardian includes a quote from federal energy minister Chris Bowen about six oil ships bound for Australia being cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, with potential supply disruptions.
- SBS emphasizes that the report shows a dramatic rise in national security fears among young Australians, specifically 18- to 24-year-olds.
- News.com.au states that 68% of people in July 2025 considered it 'more likely than not' Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict in the next five years.
- News.com.au notes that 85 to 89% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and supply disruption were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia in the next half-decade.
- ABC reports that nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, and 45% expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil.
- ABC highlights that two in three Australians considered it likely that the country would experience 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic.
- ABC notes that security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) were found to have high levels of trust and credibility, while politicians and the media were seen by some to exploit security concerns.
- ABC includes a quote from Professor Medcalf about the need for clearer communication from government on national security issues, warning that poorly managed information could generate panic or hysteria.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states that 55% of 18-24-year-olds worried about national security in February 2026, while News.com.au and ABC do not specify the exact percentage for this age group in their headlines or summaries.
- The Guardian mentions that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' but this specific breakdown is not repeated in other sources.
- The Guardian highlights that 36% of respondents regarded a foreign military attack as 'catastrophic,' a detail not explicitly mentioned in other sources.
- ABC notes that two in three Australians considered it likely that the country would experience 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic, but this specific phrasing is not mentioned in the other sources.
- The Guardian includes a specific reference to the cancellation or deferral of six oil ships due to the Middle East war, which is not mentioned in the other sources.
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