Rising national security anxiety among Australians ahead of potential foreign military conflict and crises
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged dramatically according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College, which polled over 20000 people between late 2024 and early 2026. Nearly half of Australians now believe a foreign military attack on their soil is likely within five years, with 69% expecting the country to become involved in a foreign conflict during the same period. The sharpest increases in concern were among young adults aged 18-24, whose anxiety about security rose from 22% to 55%. Beyond direct military threats, respondents overwhelmingly anticipated other crises—including climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, economic collapses, and supply disruptions—with over 85% viewing these as probable. Most Australians feel unprepared for these challenges and criticize the government for sharing insufficient information, though they also express caution about poorly managed disclosures that could provoke panic. The study’s release coincides with global tensions, including the recent US-Iran conflict and disruptions to Australian fuel supplies, amplifying public unease. While security agencies like ASIO and the AFP retain public trust, politicians and media are seen by some as exploiting fears rather than addressing them responsibly.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, with additional focus groups and interviews
- 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, described as 'more likely than not'
- 45% of Australians considered a foreign military attack on Australian soil 'likely,' 'very likely,' or 'almost certain' within five years, according to July 2025 data
- Worry about national security rose sharply among 18-24-year-olds, from 22% in November 2024 to 55% in February 2026
- 72% of respondents rated domestic terrorism as a 'serious' concern in February 2026, up from 55% in November 2024, following the Bondi attack
- More than 85% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia by the end of the decade
- Over half of Australians felt the country was 'slightly prepared' or 'not at all prepared' for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions
- Professor Rory Medcalf (ANU National Security College) stated the study showed Australians were concerned about national security and wanted more information from government
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found 85% or more respondents believed AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises were likely by the end of the decade
- 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% regarded it as 'catastrophic'
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, causing supply disruptions
- The survey found that politicians were considered untrustworthy and the media was thought to exploit security fears by some respondents
- Security agencies like the AFP and ASIO were found to have high levels of trust and credibility, while politicians and media were seen as exploiting concerns
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for 'clearer communication from government' to avoid panic or hysteria, noting the public wanted more information but also feared poorly managed releases
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, with fewer than one in five thinking Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them
- Headline specifically highlights 'global wars driving national security fears among young Australians' as a focus
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions alongside the 20,000 surveys
- The cumulative picture from the report was described as 'a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states 55% of 18-24-year-olds worried about national security in February 2026, while ABC does not specify this exact age group's percentage but implies a similar rise
- No contradictions found between sources regarding the 45% figure for foreign military attack likelihood on Australian soil
- No contradictions found regarding the 69% likelihood of Australia being involved in a foreign military conflict within five years
- The Guardian and ABC both report rising terrorism concerns post-Bondi attack, but ABC emphasizes distrust in media/politicians while the Guardian does not
- The Guardian mentions 'lowest on the list' for foreign military attacks, while ABC does not rank threats but highlights economic shocks and cyber attacks as most likely
Source Articles
Global wars driving national security fears among young Australians
A new report shows a dramatic rise in the number of young Australians worried about national security....
New research finds Australians increasingly anxious about national security
Threats like economic shocks and cyber attacks were considered most likely, but nearly half of Australians expect foreign military action on Australian soil....
Almost half of Australians think foreign military will attack within five years, ANU study suggests
University polling and focus groups found sharpest increase in those worried about national security was cohort aged 18 to 24 Nearly half of Australians believe a foreign military will attack the coun...
Half of Aussies believe war likely in next five years
A bombshell report has exposed Australians’ deepest fears about national security....