Rising national security anxiety among Australians ahead of potential foreign military conflict and crises
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged significantly over the past year, with a majority of Australians increasingly concerned about potential foreign military attacks, economic crises, and other existential threats. The Australian National University’s National Security College report, based on over 20,000 surveys and consultations conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, reveals that 45% of respondents believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is likely within five years, while 69% to 70% think Australia will be involved in a foreign military conflict. The sharpest rise in concern is among young Australians aged 18 to 24, with their anxiety about national security jumping from 22% in late 2024 to 55% by early 2026. Over 85% of Australians anticipate climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, and supply disruptions as likely threats by the end of the decade. The report also highlights widespread distrust in government communication, with many Australians feeling underinformed and underprepared for potential crises. While security agencies like ASIO and the AFP retain public trust, politicians and media are seen by some as exploiting security fears. The findings underscore a growing demand for clearer, more transparent information from the government to address public concerns and build national resilience.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys and consultations between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, including 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions.
- In July 2025, 69% of Australians surveyed considered it likely to almost certain that Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years.
- By February 2026, 45% of Australians believed a foreign military attack on Australian soil was likely, very likely, or almost certain within five years.
- Concerns about terrorism rose sharply from 55% in November 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025.
- More than 85% of respondents in 2026 believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were likely by the end of the decade.
- Over 50% of Australians felt the country was either slightly prepared or not at all prepared for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions.
- The study was completed before the current US/Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026.
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that Australians are concerned about national security and want more information from the government.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The Guardian notes that 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas likely to almost certain within five years.
- The Guardian highlights that 85% or more respondents believed AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises were likely by the end of the decade.
- The Guardian mentions that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% regarded it as 'catastrophic.'
- The Guardian includes a quote from federal energy minister Chris Bowen about six oil ships bound for Australia being cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, with potential supply disruptions.
- SBS emphasizes that the report shows a dramatic rise in national security fears among young Australians, specifically 18- to 24-year-olds.
- News.com.au states that 68% of people in July 2025 considered it 'more likely than not' Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict in the next five years.
- News.com.au notes that 85 to 89% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and supply disruption were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia in the next half-decade.
- ABC reports that nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, and 45% expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil.
- ABC highlights that two in three Australians considered it likely that the country would experience 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic.
- ABC notes that security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) were found to have high levels of trust and credibility, while politicians and the media were seen by some to exploit security concerns.
- ABC includes a quote from Professor Medcalf about the need for clearer communication from government on national security issues, warning that poorly managed information could generate panic or hysteria.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states that 55% of 18-24-year-olds worried about national security in February 2026, while News.com.au and ABC do not specify the exact percentage for this age group in their headlines or summaries.
- The Guardian mentions that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' but this specific breakdown is not repeated in other sources.
- The Guardian highlights that 36% of respondents regarded a foreign military attack as 'catastrophic,' a detail not explicitly mentioned in other sources.
- ABC notes that two in three Australians considered it likely that the country would experience 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic, but this specific phrasing is not mentioned in the other sources.
- The Guardian and ABC both mention the Bondi Beach attack, but only the Guardian explicitly states that security was stepped up ahead of memorial events following the Bondi shooting.
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