One Nation's declining poll support and political shifts in Australia amid cost-of-living pressures
Consensus Summary
Australian polling in April 2026 shows One Nation’s primary vote declining to 22–24%, down from a peak of 27% in February, though still far above its 6.4% result in the May 2025 election. The Coalition’s support rose slightly to 23% but remains down nearly 9 points from last year’s election, while Labor’s vote returned to 32% after a March dip. Both major parties lead One Nation in primary votes, though the Coalition’s edge is within poll margins. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s likeability remains negative at −12, while Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s net rating is +16, with Taylor narrowly leading as preferred PM in some polls. The war between America/Israel and Iran has driven oil prices to $120/barrel, prompting 79% of Australians to cut driving, with 27% reducing spending on other goods. Cost-of-living pressures dominate voter concerns, though Labor retains a 55–45 two-party lead, matching its 2025 election result. Analysts suggest One Nation’s surge may have peaked, with voters prioritizing economic and international issues over Hanson’s traditional focus.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation’s primary vote dropped to 22% in the Resolve Political Monitor Poll (April 13–18, 2026) of 1,807 voters, down 2 points from previous levels.
- The Coalition’s primary vote rose to 23% in the Resolve poll, up 1 point from earlier months, but remains down ~9 points from the May 2025 election.
- Labor’s primary vote was 32% in the Resolve poll, up from 29% in March, but still below the 34.6% it achieved at the May 2025 election.
- One Nation’s highest recorded primary vote was 27% (recorded twice in February 2026), before a 1-point dip in March and further decline in April.
- At the May 2025 election, One Nation secured 6.4% of the primary vote, significantly lower than its current poll support.
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net likeability rating is −12, unchanged since February 2026, while Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s net likeability is +16.
- The war between America/Israel and Iran has pushed global oil prices to nearly $120 per barrel, prompting 79% of Australians to adjust driving habits (e.g., 58% driving less).
- Keeping the cost of living low is the top policy priority for 42% of voters, surpassing housing (8%), immigration (6%), and healthcare (7%).
- At a two-party preferred level, Labor leads 55–45, matching its result from the May 2025 election.
- The Resolve poll was conducted from April 13 to 18, 2026, with a sample size of 1,807 people.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Newspoll (conducted for *The Australian*) found One Nation’s primary vote at 24% (down 2 points), with Labor and Coalition steady at 31% and 21%, respectively.
- Greens and ‘others’ each saw a 1-point uptick to 13% and 11% in the Newspoll.
- Prime Minister Albanese leads Angus Taylor 46–37% as preferred PM in Newspoll.
- None of 10 proposed tax revenue options attracted majority support, but 18% rejected all; petroleum resource rent tax increase had 42% support.
- One Nation’s support peaked at 27% in February before a 1-point dip in March.
- Pollster Jim Reed stated ‘peak Pauline’ may have been reached, citing voter focus on economy/international affairs.
- Angus Taylor’s preferred PM lead over Albanese is 33–32%, with 34% undecided.
- Albanese’s performance rated ‘good’ by 37% (highest since January), while 52% rated it ‘poor’.
- Taylor’s performance rated ‘good’ by 41%, with 26% rating it ‘poor’; 33% undecided about Taylor vs. 10% undecided about Albanese.
- Nationals leader Matt Canavan has a +8 net likeability, behind Taylor (+16) and One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce (+10).
- Pauline Hanson’s net likeability dropped 4 points to +6 (from +15 in January).
- 38% of voters expect Labor to win the next election (due by May 2028), 22% the Coalition, and 16% ‘someone else’ (One Nation).
- 27% of respondents reduced purchases on other goods/services due to petrol price hikes.
- Government extended free public transport for another month and halved prices for the rest of 2026.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- Newscomau reports One Nation’s primary vote at 24% in Newspoll, while The Age reports it at 22% in Resolve poll (both April 2026).
- Newscomau states Albanese leads Taylor 46–37% in Newspoll, but The Age states Albanese leads 33–32% in Resolve poll (both April 2026).
- Newscomau does not mention a 1-point lead for the Coalition over One Nation (within margin of error), while The Age highlights this detail.
- The Age notes One Nation’s lowest support since January (18%) was in January 2026, while Newscomau does not specify this earlier low.
Source Articles
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