Australian public’s rising anxiety over national security threats and perceived government unpreparedness
Consensus Summary
Australian public anxiety over national security has surged dramatically according to a comprehensive study by the Australian National University’s National Security College, which polled over 20000 people between November 2024 and February 2026. Nearly two-thirds of Australians now list national security as a concern, with the sharpest increases among young adults aged 18 to 24, whose worries about security jumped from 22% to 55%. The study reveals widespread fears of multiple threats, including foreign military attacks (45% consider it likely), economic crises, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, and climate change impacts, with over 85% of respondents believing these risks are imminent. Despite these concerns, most Australians feel their country is underprepared to handle such threats, with fewer than one in five believing Australia is ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared for any of the 15 listed risks. The Bondi Beach terror attack in December 2025 further heightened fears of domestic terrorism, pushing concern levels from 55% to 72%. The research also highlights a public demand for more transparent communication from government, though some distrust politicians and media for exploiting security fears. Professor Rory Medcalf underscored the need for national resilience against converging risks, noting that global conflicts like the US-Iran war have intensified economic and social instability. While all sources agree on the scale of public anxiety, the Guardian uniquely emphasizes the economic impact of the Middle East war on Australia’s fuel supply, while ABC and Newscomaustralia focus more on public trust in institutions and the need for clearer government messaging.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys and consultations between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, including 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- Nearly two-thirds (66-68%) of Australians surveyed in 2025-2026 consider national security a concern, with a sharp rise among 18-24-year-olds from 22% in November 2024 to 55% in February 2026 (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is ‘likely,’ ‘very likely,’ or ‘almost certain’ within five years, according to July 2025 data (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- 72% of Australians rated domestic terrorism a ‘serious’ concern in February 2026, up from 55% in November 2024, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025 (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- More than 85% of respondents in 2025-2026 believe climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions are ‘more likely than not’ to affect Australia by the end of the decade (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- 69% of Australians surveyed in July 2025 considered it ‘likely to almost certain’ that Australia would be involved in a military conflict overseas within five years (GUARDIAN, NEWSCOMAU).
- Over 50% of respondents felt Australia was ‘slightly prepared’ or ‘not at all prepared’ for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions (GUARDIAN, ABC).
- The surveys were conducted prior to the current US/Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026 (NEWSCOMAU, ABC).
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated the findings showed Australians were concerned about security risks and wanted more information (GUARDIAN, ABC).
- The Bondi Beach terror attack occurred on December 14, 2025 (GUARDIAN, ABC)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found that 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australia’s involvement in a military conflict overseas ‘likely to almost certain’ within five years.
- A foreign military attack was rated the greatest concern, with 43% of respondents deeming it would have ‘major consequences’ and 36% regarding it ‘catastrophic’ (GUARDIAN only).
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, with ‘bumps in supply’ expected (GUARDIAN only).
- The report explicitly states the cumulative picture is of a public that ‘knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more’ (NEWSCOMAU only).
- The data collection included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions (NEWSCOMAU only).
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, and in all cases, fewer than one in five thought Australia was ‘very’ or ‘fully’ prepared (ABC only).
- Security agencies like the AFP and ASIO were found to have high trust and credibility, but politicians and the media were seen by some to exploit security concerns (ABC only).
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for ‘clearer communication from government’ to avoid panic or hysteria (ABC only).
- The headline explicitly focuses on ‘global wars driving national security fears among young Australians’ (SBS only).
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states 45% of Australians considered a foreign military attack ‘likely, very likely, or almost certain’ in July 2025, while ABC and Newscomaustralia do not specify the exact percentage breakdown for this exact phrasing.
- No contradictions found between sources regarding the timeline of the Bondi attack (all agree it was December 14, 2025).
- No contradictions found regarding the percentage of Australians concerned about national security (all agree ~66-68%).
- No contradictions found regarding the percentage of Australians concerned about terrorism (all agree 72% in February 2026).
- No contradictions found regarding the percentage of Australians concerned about involvement in a military conflict overseas (all agree ~69% in July 2025).
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