Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s referendum defeat on judicial reform and its political fallout
Consensus Summary
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suffered a major setback in a referendum on October 13–14, 2024, where voters rejected her proposed judicial reforms by 53.2–54% to 46.8–46%, with turnout hitting a record 58.5–59%. The reforms aimed to separate judges and prosecutors and restructure the CSM, but critics argued they would politicize the judiciary and undermine constitutional protections. Meloni’s campaign featured inflammatory rhetoric against the judiciary, including Justice Minister Carlo Nordio’s description of the CSM as a 'para-Mafia mechanism,' while opposition parties framed the vote as a test of trust in her government. Young voters (18–34) played a decisive role, opposing the reforms by 61–68.4%, reflecting broader discontent with Meloni’s alignment with US President Donald Trump and economic pressures tied to the Middle East conflict. The defeat weakens Meloni’s political standing ahead of Italy’s 2027 election, complicates her plans for constitutional overhauls, and energizes the opposition, though divisions among her coalition partners and the fragmented left may limit immediate gains. Analysts note the referendum exposed tensions between Meloni’s far-right base and younger, more progressive voters, while her association with Trump—praised by her supporters but widely unpopular—now appears to be an electoral liability.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Giorgia Meloni’s government proposed a constitutional referendum to reform Italy’s judiciary, separating judges and prosecutors and restructuring the Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura (CSM).
- The referendum was held on October 13–14, 2024, with 53.2–54% of voters rejecting the reform and 46.8–46% supporting it.
- Turnout reached approximately 58.5–59%, exceeding pre-referendum forecasts.
- Young voters (18–34 years) overwhelmingly opposed the reform, with 61–68.4% voting no.
- Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party leads in polls at around 30%, but her personal approval ratings are high.
- The referendum campaign featured inflammatory rhetoric from Meloni and her ministers targeting the judiciary, including Justice Minister Carlo Nordio calling the CSM a 'para-Mafia mechanism'.
- Meloni’s alignment with US President Donald Trump and his policies is widely criticized by Italians, contributing to her referendum defeat.
- The referendum results are expected to weaken Meloni’s political standing ahead of Italy’s 2027 general election.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Meloni’s approval ratings for her party have remained stable since 2022, a rare feat in Italian politics.
- Meloni’s alignment with Trump is framed as ideological affinity (shared views on tradition, religion, and cultural homogeneity) and strategic pragmatism (US as an irreplaceable partner).
- The 'Trump factor' includes tariff pressures and demands for high military spending, which have mobilized opposition voters.
- The referendum loss forces Meloni to shelve plans for a bolder constitutional overhaul strengthening the executive and a direct election for prime minister.
- Meloni’s coalition partners may become restive, but no immediate breakup is expected.
- The opposition is energized but remains divided, with the Democratic Party and Five Star Movement leading the no campaign.
- Meloni turned to an irreverent podcast hosted by a rapper to sway young voters days before the referendum.
- Roberto D’Alimonte (Luiss University) stated: 'We’re all surprised by the level of the turnout. I’m very impressed.'
- The referendum defeat will make it harder to pass an electoral law favoring Meloni’s coalition in 2027 and scupper her proposal for direct prime minister elections.
- D’Alimonte added: 'The other thing is when you start losing in politics, you might face a change in the wind. People start looking at you differently.'
- The opposition parties are expected to gain momentum from the defeat, potentially uniting against Meloni.
- Daniele Albertazzi (University of Surrey) called the result a 'bad, bad result' for Meloni, stating it means she has lost the Italian electorate on a key manifesto proposal.
- Albertazzi noted: 'If the centre-left gets its act together, this is going to help them. Because it means that her image as unbeatable is not there anymore.'
- The reform was framed as necessary to ensure impartiality in courts, but critics argued it was an attempt to exert more control over independent judges.
- The reform’s complexity and inflammatory rhetoric made it a referendum on Meloni herself rather than the judicial system.
- Lorenzo Castellani (Luiss University) stated: 'Meloni is certainly weakened.'
- Filippo Michelini (29) and Sibillia (29) traveled back to Rome to vote, highlighting young voters’ engagement despite logistical barriers.
- Michelini said: 'The constitution is a fundamental element of our society. These reforms would have given more power to people who are already powerful.'
- Sibillia added: 'If this was a government I trusted, I might have voted in favour, but from what I could understand, it was not about improving the system.'
- Thousands are expected to march in Rome on Saturday calling for an end to wars and Meloni’s resignation.
- Italy’s Last Generation climate activist group campaigned against the judicial changes over fears they would 'further aggravate the possibility of expressing dissent in a non-violent way'.
- Matteo Ferrario (22) criticized Elly Schlein (Democratic Party leader) for 'shouty politics – all slogans and no solutions.'
- Meloni flew to Algeria for talks on gas supplies and praised the EU’s offshore asylum hubs measure, deflecting domestic criticism.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- Guardian Article 1 states Meloni’s approval ratings have remained stable since 2022, while Guardian Article 2’s Roberto D’Alimonte says her standing is now damaged and she is a 'weaker prime minister'.
- Guardian Article 1 reports the 'yes' campaign was ahead in polls just before the referendum, but Guardian Article 2 does not mention this detail.
- Guardian Article 4 states young voters aged 18–29 opposed the reform by 68.4%, while Guardian Article 2 reports 61% opposition in this age group.
- ABC and Guardian Article 3 describe the reform as separating the roles of judges and prosecutors and restructuring the CSM, but Guardian Article 1 does not explicitly mention the separation of roles as a key detail.
- Guardian Article 4 mentions Meloni’s tourism minister Daniela Santanchè resigned amid fallout, but this detail is not referenced in Guardian Articles 1 or 2 or ABC.
Source Articles
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