Rising national security anxiety among Australians ahead of potential foreign military conflict and crises
Consensus Summary
A series of surveys by the Australian National University’s National Security College reveal a sharp rise in national security anxiety among Australians, with nearly two-thirds of the population now listing it as a concern. The data, collected from over 20,000 people between late 2024 and early 2026, shows that 69% of those polled in mid-2025 believed Australia would be drawn into a foreign military conflict within five years, and 45% thought a direct foreign military attack on Australian soil was likely. Younger Australians, particularly those aged 18 to 24, have shown the most significant increase in concern, with their anxiety about security rising from 22% to 55% over the survey period. Threats like AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, economic crises, and climate change impacts were widely viewed as probable, with over 85% of respondents considering them likely by the end of the decade. The surveys also highlight a growing fear of domestic terrorism, spiking from 55% to 72% after the Bondi Beach attack in late 2025. Most Australians feel unprepared for these threats, with more than half believing the country lacks adequate readiness. The study underscores a demand for clearer communication from the government, though some respondents distrust politicians and media for exploiting security fears. Professor Rory Medcalf emphasized that the public wants a balanced national conversation on preparedness and resilience, without causing unnecessary alarm.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys and consultations between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, including 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions.
- 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, with 45% considering a foreign military attack on Australian soil likely or very likely.
- Nearly two-thirds (66%) of Australians surveyed in 2026 listed national security as a concern, up from 50% in November 2024, with the sharpest increase among 18-24-year-olds (55% in 2026, up from 22% in November 2024).
- 85% or more of respondents believed threats like AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises were likely by the end of the decade.
- Concerns over domestic terrorism rose sharply from 55% in November 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach attack on December 14, 2025.
- More than half of Australians surveyed felt the country was either slightly prepared or not at all prepared for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions.
- The study was conducted prior to the current US/Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026.
- Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that Australians are concerned about national security and want more information from the government.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The Guardian notes that 55% of 18-24-year-olds worried about national security in 2026, an increase from 22% in November 2024, and highlights that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% rated it 'catastrophic.'
- The Guardian mentions that six oil ships bound for Australia were cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, with the federal energy minister Chris Bowen acknowledging 'bumps in supply' ahead.
- SBS emphasizes that the report shows a 'dramatic rise' in national security fears among young Australians, but does not provide additional specific data beyond what is already in consensus facts.
- News.com.au explicitly states that 68% of people in July 2025 considered it 'more likely than not' Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, and 45% believed a foreign military attack on Australia was 'probable.'
- The report mentions that 85 to 89% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and supply disruption were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia in the next five years.
- ABC notes that nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years, and 45% expect a foreign military attack on Australian soil, with a specific mention of 'unprecedented' natural disasters or another global pandemic as likely threats.
- ABC highlights that fewer than one in five of those surveyed thought Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of the 15 threats presented, including foreign military attacks, economic crises, or pandemics.
- ABC reports that politicians and the media were seen by some as exploiting security concerns, while security agencies like ASIO and the AFP retained high trust and credibility.
- ABC includes a quote from Professor Medcalf emphasizing that the public wants clearer communication from government on these issues, without causing panic or hysteria.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states that 45% of Australians considered a foreign military attack 'likely, very likely, or almost certain' in July 2025, while News.com.au and ABC both report 45% believed it was 'probable'—though the Guardian does not use the term 'probable.'
- The Guardian mentions that 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' but this specific breakdown is not repeated in other sources.
- The Guardian highlights that 36% of respondents rated a foreign military attack as 'catastrophic,' a detail not mentioned in other sources.
- ABC notes that 70% of Australians expect involvement in a military conflict within five years, while the Guardian and News.com.au report 69% for the same timeframe (July 2025).
- The Guardian explicitly mentions that 85% or more respondents believed various threats were likely, while News.com.au specifies a range of 85 to 89% for the same threats.
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