Rising Australian national security anxiety and perceived threats over next five years
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged dramatically over 15 months, with over 60% of Australians now listing it as a top concern by early 2026. The Australian National University’s National Security College report, based on 20,000+ surveys and extensive public consultations, reveals that nearly two-thirds of respondents believe Australia will face a foreign military conflict within five years, while 45% expect a direct foreign military attack on Australian soil. Younger Australians (18–24) show the sharpest increase in worry, rising from 22% to 55%. Threats like AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, economic crises, and climate change impacts are seen as highly probable by over 85% of respondents. The public overwhelmingly feels unprepared for these risks and demands more transparency from governments, though they also express caution about poorly managed information causing panic. Security agencies like ASIO and AFP retain public trust, while politicians and media are perceived as exploiting fears. The findings coincide with real-world disruptions, including the Bondi Beach terror attack and Middle East conflict impacts on global supply chains, reinforcing public unease about Australia’s resilience.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, with additional focus groups and interviews
- 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, with 68% (July 2025) calling it 'more likely than not'
- 45% of Australians (July 2025) considered a foreign military attack on Australian soil 'likely, very likely, or almost certain' within five years
- Worry about national security rose from 40% in November 2024 to 60% in February 2026, with the sharpest increase among 18–24-year-olds (from 22% to 55%)
- 72% of respondents in February 2026 rated domestic terrorism as a 'serious' concern, up from 55% in November 2024, following the Bondi Beach attack
- More than 85% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were 'more likely than not' by the end of the decade
- Over 50% of Australians felt the country was 'slightly prepared' or 'not at all prepared' for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions
- Professor Rory Medcalf (ANU National Security College) stated the study showed 'deep concern' and a demand for more government transparency on security threats
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict (which began February 28, 2026) but after the Bondi Beach terror attack (December 14, 2025)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found 55% of 18–24-year-olds worried about national security in February 2026, with 85%+ respondents believing AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, supply disruptions, climate change, foreign interference, and economic crises were likely by the end of the decade
- 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% called it 'catastrophic'
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia were cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, causing supply disruptions
- No additional specific details beyond the core consensus facts; headline emphasizes 'global wars driving fears among young Australians'
- Australians expressed concern that governments share 'too little information' on security threats and distrust politicians while trusting security agencies like ASIO and AFP
- The survey presented 15 different threats, with fewer than one in five respondents believing Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them
- Professor Medcalf noted 'a realistic appraisal' by the public that 'multiple risks are converging,' citing economic impacts of the Iran conflict and social cohesion issues
- A majority of Australians want clearer communication from government but fear poorly managed information could cause panic or hysteria
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions alongside the 20,000 surveys
- The cumulative picture was described as 'a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states 45% of Australians considered a foreign military attack 'likely, very likely, or almost certain' in July 2025, while ABC and News.com.au do not specify the exact percentage for that exact timeframe but confirm 45% overall
- No contradictions found regarding the timing of the Bondi attack (December 14, 2025) or the US/Iran conflict (February 28, 2026) across all sources
Source Articles
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