Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s referendum defeat on judicial reform and its political fallout
Consensus Summary
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suffered a major setback in a referendum on October 13–14, 2024, where voters rejected her government’s proposed judicial reform by 53.2% to 46.8%, a narrow but decisive defeat. The reform aimed to separate judges and prosecutors’ careers and restructure the Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura (CSM) into two bodies, with members chosen by lottery rather than peer votes, addressing longstanding right-wing grievances about judicial bias. Both sources agree the vote reflected broader dissatisfaction with Meloni’s leadership, framing the referendum as a proxy battle between the executive and judiciary. While Meloni maintained her government would continue unchanged, analysts like Daniele Albertazzi (ABC) and Riccardo Alcaro (Guardian) warned the defeat weakened her political standing ahead of 2025 elections, particularly as her alignment with Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán’s illiberal policies became an electoral liability. The Guardian highlighted economic concerns tied to Trump’s Iran strike as a mobilizing factor for 'No’ voters, a detail ABC omitted. Turnout was high at nearly 59%, with left-leaning regions and youth playing key roles in the opposition. Despite the loss, Meloni remains Italy’s most potent political force, though her coalition’s stability and the opposition’s unity remain uncertain.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Giorgia Meloni’s government proposed a constitutional reform to separate the careers of judges and public prosecutors, dividing the Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura (CSM) into two separate bodies, with a third disciplinary council
- The referendum was held on October 13–14, 2024, with the 'No' vote winning 53.2% to 46.8% (Guardian) and nearly 54% to just over 46% (ABC)
- The reform would have required judges and prosecutors to be chosen through a lottery system rather than a vote by peers, with one-third of members appointed by parliament
- Turnout was approximately 59% (ABC) and 53.2%–46.8% vote breakdown (Guardian) confirmed by official figures
- Meloni’s coalition includes Brothers of Italy, which has maintained stable approval ratings since 2022, despite this setback
- The referendum sought to address concerns about judicial bias and inefficiency, particularly prosecutors’ perceived politicization, a longstanding right-wing grievance dating back to Silvio Berlusconi’s era
- The reform was approved along party lines in parliament before the referendum
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Meloni’s alignment with US President Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán’s illiberal policies was explicitly cited as a factor in the referendum’s outcome, with critics linking Trump’s Iran strike to economic concerns for Italy
- The Guardian notes that central Italy and major cities (traditionally left-leaning) saw the highest turnout, with youth mobilization significant, indicating opposition to Meloni’s record and Trump alignment
- The article highlights that Meloni’s electoral base (right-wing, pro-Trump voters) remained largely unmoved, but broader opposition mobilized against the reform, framing it as a struggle between executive and judiciary
- Riccardo Alcaro (IAI researcher) is quoted analyzing the 'Trump factor’ as an electoral handicap, with economic costs of the Iran war potentially worsening Meloni’s position ahead of 2025 elections
- The Guardian mentions Meloni’s coalition partners may grow restless, but no immediate threat to her leadership is suggested
- The opposition is described as energized but divided, with the Democratic Party and Five Star Movement leading the 'No' campaign
- Professor Daniele Albertazzi (UK’s University of Surrey) is quoted calling the result a 'bad, bad result’ for Meloni, stating it undermines her image as 'unbeatable’ and gives the center-left an opportunity
- Former PM Giuseppe Conte (Five Star Movement) declared the referendum a 'eviction notice’ for the government after four years, calling for a new government
- ABC emphasizes Meloni’s insistence that the referendum was not about her leadership, despite her aggressive campaigning for the reform
- The article highlights that the reform’s complexity and political rhetoric made it a referendum on Meloni herself, with critics accusing her of seeking to control judges
- Lorenzo Castellani (Luiss University) is quoted saying Meloni is 'certainly weakened’ by the defeat, though no direct comparison to Trump’s political impact is made
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states the 'No’ vote was 53.2% to 46.8%, while ABC reports it as nearly 54% to just over 46%—a slight but notable discrepancy in the exact percentages
- The Guardian explicitly links Trump’s Iran strike to mobilizing 'No’ voters, while ABC does not mention this specific connection between the war and the referendum outcome
- The Guardian describes the opposition as 'broad and diverse,’ dominated by the Democratic Party and Five Star Movement, but ABC frames Five Star’s Conte as declaring an 'eviction notice’ for the government, implying a more unified opposition stance
- The Guardian notes that Meloni’s coalition may become 'restive’ but has no incentive to break up, while ABC does not address coalition stability or internal dynamics
- The Guardian attributes the highest turnout to central Italy and major cities (left-leaning) with significant youth mobilization, but ABC does not specify regional turnout patterns beyond overall figures
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