Rising Australian national security anxiety and perceived threats over next five years
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged significantly over the past year, with over 66% of Australians expressing concern about potential conflicts and threats within the next five years. The Australian National University’s National Security College report, based on over 20,000 surveys and extensive interviews, reveals that 45% of respondents believe a foreign military attack on Australia is probable, while 68-69% think the country will be involved in a foreign military conflict. Concerns about terrorism have also risen sharply, from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in early 2026, following the Bondi Beach terror attack. Young Australians aged 18-24 have shown the most dramatic increase in anxiety, with their concerns jumping from 22% to 55% over the same period. Most Australians feel unprepared for threats like climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, economic crises, and supply disruptions, with fewer than 20% believing the nation is 'very' or 'fully' prepared. The public also expresses frustration with the government’s lack of transparency, demanding more information while also warning against poorly managed disclosures that could cause panic. The surveys were conducted before the recent US/Iran conflict, but the findings underscore a growing sense of vulnerability and a call for better national resilience and communication strategies.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National University’s National Security College conducted surveys between November 2024 and February 2026 involving over 20,000 Australians, alongside 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions.
- 68% to 69% of Australians surveyed in July 2025 considered it 'more likely than not' Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years (reported by NEWSCOMAU and ABC).
- 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack on Australia is 'probable' or 'likely' within five years (NEWSCOMAU, ABC, GUARDIAN).
- Concerns about terrorism threats rose sharply from 55% in late 2024 to 72% in February 2026, following the Bondi Beach terror attack on December 14, 2025 (NEWSCOMAU, ABC, GUARDIAN).
- 85% to 89% of respondents said climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and supply disruption were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia in the next five years (NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN).
- Less than 20% of respondents believed Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of the 15 listed threats (ABC, GUARDIAN).
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict (which began February 28, 2026) (NEWSCOMAU, ABC, GUARDIAN).
- The National Security College’s head, Professor Rory Medcalf, was quoted in all three sources (NEWSCOMAU, ABC, GUARDIAN).
- The study found that 18-24-year-olds’ security concerns increased from 22% in November 2024 to 55% in February 2026 (NEWSCOMAU, GUARDIAN).
- Most Australians want more information from government about national security threats (NEWSCOMAU, ABC, GUARDIAN)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The report explicitly states 'almost two in three people now list it as a concern' regarding national security anxiety (66% implied).
- The report highlights that 85 to 89% of respondents said specific threats (climate change, AI attacks, etc.) were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia, with a range provided.
- The article mentions 'a sharp rise among 18- to 24-year-olds, from 22 per cent to 55 per cent over the 15 month research period' with exact phrasing.
- The article notes that 'most Australians believe the nation is underprepared for such threats, and feel the government shares too little information about what the nation faces.'
- The article includes the exact quote: 'The cumulative picture is of a public that knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and – while aware the issues are complex – is open to knowing more.'
- The article states 'nearly 70% of Australians surveyed expect Australia to become involved in a military conflict within five years,' with a slight variation from other sources.
- The article includes the specific detail that 'two in three Australians also considered it likely that the country would experience “unprecedented” natural disasters, or another global pandemic.'
- The article mentions that 'politicians considered untrustworthy and the media thought to exploit fears,' with no other source referencing this.
- The article notes that 'security agencies like the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) were found to have high levels of trust and credibility,' which is not mentioned elsewhere.
- The article includes the exact quote: 'Most Australians are up for clearer communication from government on these issues.'
- The article states 'lowest on the list of events that Australians considered likely was an onshore attack by a foreign military,' which is not explicitly stated in other sources.
- The article notes that '43% of respondents deeming it would have “major consequences” and 36% regarding it “catastrophic”' for a foreign military attack, a breakdown not mentioned elsewhere.
- The article includes the specific detail that 'the federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, revealed on Sunday that six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred,' which is unrelated to the survey but adds context.
- The article states 'the study’s release comes as the latest Middle East war disrupted global fuel supplies, sending prices skyrocketing,' which is not mentioned in other sources.
- The article focuses specifically on 'global wars driving national security fears among young Australians,' a framing not emphasized in other sources.
- No specific numerical or factual details beyond the headline and a summary of the other sources' findings.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- NEWSCOMAU states 'almost two in three people now list it as a concern' (66%), while ABC and GUARDIAN report 'two-thirds' (66-67%), but the phrasing varies slightly in emphasis.
- NEWSCOMAU and ABC report 45% of Australians believe a foreign military attack is 'probable,' but GUARDIAN states '45% still considered that eventuality either likely, very likely or almost certain,' which is a minor semantic difference.
- NEWSCOMAU and ABC report 68-69% of Australians considered involvement in a foreign military conflict 'more likely than not,' while GUARDIAN does not specify the exact phrasing used in the July 2025 survey.
- NEWSCOMAU and ABC report that 72% of Australians considered terrorism a 'serious concern' in February 2026, but GUARDIAN states '72% of respondents rated such an event as a “serious” concern,' which is consistent but not explicitly compared to other phrasing.
- NEWSCOMAU and ABC report that 85-89% of respondents believed multiple threats were 'more likely than not,' while GUARDIAN states '85% or more respondents believed' these threats were likely, which is a minor difference in phrasing.
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