Rising Australian national security anxiety and perceived threats over next five years
Consensus Summary
Australian national security anxiety has surged dramatically according to a landmark ANU study involving over 20,000 respondents, with two-thirds of Australians now listing security concerns as a top priority. The research, conducted between late 2024 and early 2026âbefore the current US-Iran conflict but after the Bondi terror attackârevealed that 45% believe a foreign military attack on Australian soil is probable within five years, while 68-69% expect overseas military involvement. Younger Australians (18-24) showed the sharpest increase in concern, rising from 22% to 55%. Threats like AI-driven attacks, disinformation, economic crises, and supply chain disruptions were deemed highly likely by 85% or more of respondents, with most Australians feeling unprepared for these challenges. The study also highlighted distrust in political messaging, with calls for clearer communication from governments to avoid panic. While all sources agree on the scale of anxiety, nuances exist in threat prioritizationâeconomic shocks and cyber threats were emphasized by ABC, while Guardian underscored supply disruptions and catastrophic consequences of foreign attacks. The findings underscore a nation grappling with converging risks, from terrorism to global conflicts, and a growing demand for transparency from leaders.
â Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Australian National Universityâs National Security College surveyed over 20,000 Australians between November 2024 and February 2026, with additional focus groups and interviews
- 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed Australia would be involved in a foreign military conflict within five years, with 68% (July 2025) calling it 'more likely than not'
- 45% of Australians (July 2025) considered a foreign military attack on Australian soil 'likely,' 'very likely,' or 'almost certain' within five years
- Two-thirds (66%) of Australians surveyed in 2026 reported national security as a concern, up from 50% in November 2024, with the sharpest increase among 18â24-year-olds (55% in 2026 vs. 22% in November 2024)
- 72% of respondents in February 2026 rated domestic terrorism as a 'serious' concern, up from 55% in November 2024, following the Bondi attack
- 85â89% of respondents believed climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions were 'more likely than not' to affect Australia by the end of the decade
- Over 50% of Australians felt the country was 'slightly prepared' or 'not at all prepared' for threats like foreign military attacks, economic crises, or supply disruptions
- Rory Medcalf, head of ANUâs National Security College, stated the study showed 'most Australians were concerned about national security and wanted more information'
- The surveys were conducted before the current US/Iran conflict (which began February 28, 2026) but after the Bondi terror attack (December 14, 2025)
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The study found 69% of those polled in July 2025 considered Australiaâs involvement in a military conflict overseas 'likely to almost certain' within five years
- 85% or more respondents believed AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, critical supply disruptions, climate change impacts, foreign interference, and severe economic crises were likely by the end of the decade
- 43% of respondents deemed a foreign military attack would have 'major consequences,' while 36% regarded it as 'catastrophic'
- Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred due to the Middle East war, causing supply disruptions
- No additional specific details beyond the core consensus facts; headline emphasizes 'global wars driving national security fears among young Australians'
- Australians expressed concern that governments share 'too little information' about national security threats and viewed politicians as untrustworthy while the media was seen as exploiting fears
- Security agencies like ASIO and AFP were found to have high trust and credibility, but politicians and media were criticized for poor communication
- Professor Medcalf emphasized the need for 'clearer communication from government' to avoid panic or hysteria, noting public awareness of the 'complex and nuanced' issue
- The survey presented 15 different threats to respondents, with fewer than one in five believing Australia was 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any of them
- The report included 480 interviews, 300 meetings, eight focus groups, and 100 public submissions alongside the 20,000+ surveys
- The cumulative picture was described as a public that 'knows security risks are real, doubts the nation is prepared, and is open to knowing more'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states 69% of July 2025 respondents considered overseas military conflict 'likely to almost certain,' while ABC and News.com.au report 68% called it 'more likely than not'âa subtle but distinct phrasing difference
- The Guardian reports 85%+ of respondents believed multiple threats (AI, disinformation, etc.) were likely, but ABC specifies 'more than three-quarters' (75%) for economic shocks, violent unrest, foreign interference, and supply disruptionsâslightly lower range
- No source explicitly contradicts the 45% foreign military attack figure, but ABCâs emphasis on 'unprecedented' natural disasters and pandemics as 'likely' (not quantified) contrasts with Guardianâs focus on supply disruptions and economic crises as the top concerns
- The Guardian highlights six oil ships being cancelled/deferred by Bowen, while ABC and SBS do not mention this specific supply disruption detail
- News.com.auâs phrasing of 'probable' for the 45% foreign military attack aligns with Guardianâs 'likely/very likely/almost certain,' but ABC omits this exact phrasing, instead grouping it under broader 'national security shocks'
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