One Nation’s proposed 5% GDP defence spending plan and its political implications
Consensus Summary
Both THEAGE and SMH report that One Nation’s proposed defence spending plan, led by Pauline Hanson, would require lifting Australia’s defence budget to 5% of GDP, an estimated $400 billion increase over four years. This plan, announced at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in November 2025, lacks detailed policy documentation and funding mechanisms. Defence economist Marcus Hellyer warns such a spending surge would necessitate tax hikes or cuts to other services like health and aged care, while also potentially reintroducing conscription. The Liberal Party’s Angus Taylor and Tony Abbott have signaled openness to preference deals with One Nation to oust the Labor government, though Prime Minister Albanese cautions this risks making the Liberals indistinguishable from One Nation. Meanwhile, Trade Minister Don Farrell dismisses One Nation as a fleeting political threat. Experts like Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute urge One Nation to provide clearer details on how the increased spending would translate into specific military capabilities.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation leader Pauline Hanson proposed lifting Australia’s defence spending to at least 5% of GDP, up from the current ~2% (~$63 billion annually).
- The estimated cost of One Nation’s defence plan would be an extra $400 billion over four years, according to defence economist Marcus Hellyer.
- Hellyer, head of research at Strategic Analysis Australia, stated that lifting defence spending to 5% of GDP would grow the budget to around $692 billion over the four-year forward estimates, up from $277 billion under current policy.
- Hanson made her 5% GDP defence spending call during a speech at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in November 2025.
- Australia’s AUKUS submarine program is estimated to cost between $268 billion and $368 billion over 30 years.
- One Nation has no published defence policy on its website, and the party did not respond to requests for comment on how the extra spending would be funded or modelled.
- Opposition Leader Angus Taylor stated, 'we’ll work with whoever we have to get rid of this toxic Labor government,' indicating willingness to preference One Nation.
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, 'The problem for Angus Taylor is that if he tries to out-One-Nation One Nation, then they become indistinguishable.'
- Defence Minister Richard Marles stated in April 2026 that the government plans to spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2033, using NATO accounting methods.
- Liberal Party president Tony Abbott suggested the party’s willingness to work with One Nation in an email to members, stating, 'We certainly won’t win the next election as slaves to focus groups.'
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Trade Minister Don Farrell claimed One Nation was not a threat to Labor, stating, 'The populist parties in this country come and go, they rise and they fall.'
- The article includes a quote from Hanson at Senate estimates hearings last week, where she called the defence force’s equipment 'ageing' and the military 'pathetic for a country of our size.'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The articles do not contain any direct contradictions between sources.
Source Articles
One Nation defence plan could blow out budget by $400b and require conscription
One Nation’s polling surge, which has pushed it above Labor and the Coalition, has focused attention on the right-wing populist party’s policy platform.
One Nation defence plan could blow out budget by $400b and require conscription
One Nation’s polling surge, which has pushed it above Labor and the Coalition, has focused attention on the right-wing populist party’s policy platform.