El Niño declared in 2026, strongest on record, with global and Australian impacts
Consensus Summary
A strong El Niño event has been officially declared in June 2026 by the Bureau of Meteorology and NOAA, marking the first such declaration since 2023. This El Niño is projected to be among the strongest on record, with a 63% chance of rivaling the 1997 event, and is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to Australia, particularly in southern and eastern regions, from July to September. Climate change is amplifying its impacts, increasing risks of extreme heat, drought, bushfires, and coral bleaching. The event is likely to peak between late fall and early winter, with some forecasts suggesting it could last into 2027, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record. While El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, it increases Pacific cyclone risks, though Australia may see fewer but more intense cyclones. The Niño3.4 region’s sea surface temperatures have already exceeded El Niño thresholds, with rapid warming observed. Despite current wet conditions in parts of Australia due to other oceanic influences, the long-term outlook favors below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, particularly in spring and summer. Experts warn of heightened risks for agriculture, water security, and bushfire danger, though the exact local impacts remain uncertain due to El Niño’s complex interactions with other climate drivers.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) officially declared an El Niño active in Australia on June 16, 2026, after observing warmer-than-usual Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes.
- The El Niño event is projected to be among the strongest on record, with a 63% chance of ranking among the largest since 1950, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to Australia, particularly in southern and eastern regions, with below-median rainfall forecasted from July to September 2026.
- The Niño3.4 region's sea surface temperature exceeded the El Niño threshold of 0.8°C above average for the first time since early 2024, with the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at -23.3, well beyond the El Niño threshold of -7.
- Climate change is amplifying the impacts of El Niño, increasing risks of extreme heat, drought, bushfires, and coral bleaching in Australia.
- The El Niño is expected to peak between late fall and early winter (November to January), with some forecasts suggesting it could last into 2027.
- The global average temperature is already 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, and El Niño is likely to contribute to 2027 being the hottest year on record.
- El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity but increases Pacific cyclone risks, with Australia potentially seeing fewer cyclones but with higher intensity if they form.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The rate of warming in the Niño3.4 region is the fastest since 1943, with BOM’s ACCESS-S model forecasting a peak warming of over 3°C above normal, exceeding the previous post-1900 high of 2.65°C from November 1902.
- Australia is currently experiencing a wet month due to a north-west cloudband and Indian/Southern Ocean influences, despite El Niño’s presence.
- The last El Niño (2023) led to Australia’s driest three-month period on record (August–October 2023), but it was also influenced by a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
- 2026 is on track to be the 7th consecutive year with either El Niño or La Niña, a rare occurrence historically.
- University of Queensland emeritus professor Roger Stone noted that recent cutbacks to US NOAA’s monitoring systems have made tracking El Niño harder.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres described El Niño as an 'urgent climate warning,' stating it will 'pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.'
- Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan warned northeastern Africa could experience 'weather whiplash' from intense drought to heavy rains.
- The El Niño has been nicknamed 'super' or 'Godzilla' due to its early strength and rapid development.
- The Climate Council’s Amanda McKenzie warned of a 'dangerous double act' between El Niño and climate pollution, particularly for Australian farmers and bushfire risks.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s Felicity Gamble noted that ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have risen rapidly, creating 'unprecedented conditions.'
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states El Niño will likely peak a month or two earlier than usual, while ABC notes it typically peaks in late fall or early winter (November–January).
- ABC emphasizes that the strength of El Niño does not always correlate with local impacts in Australia, citing the 2023 event’s minimal effect on most of the country, while the Guardian suggests stronger El Niños will have more pronounced global effects.
- The Guardian mentions a 63% chance of this El Niño ranking among the largest since 1950, while ABC’s BOM model forecasts a peak warming of over 3°C, which could surpass the 1997 record but is not explicitly tied to a ranking probability.
- ABC highlights that Australia’s current wet conditions are influenced by the Indian and Southern Oceans, while the Guardian focuses more on the Pacific’s role in driving global extremes.
- The Guardian cites Princeton University’s Gabriel Vecchi stating that large El Niños tend to last longer, while ABC’s Nate Byrne notes that El Niño forecasts become less accurate the further into the future they extend.
Source Articles
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