El Niño declared in 2026, strongest on record, with global and Australian impacts

Consensus Summary

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) declared an El Niño event active in June 2026, marking the first such declaration in nearly three years since the last event in 2023. This development follows a rapid warming of Pacific Ocean temperatures, with the Niño3.4 region exceeding the El Niño threshold of 0.8°C and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) plunging to -23.3. Scientists warn that this El Niño could become the strongest on record, with potential Pacific warming surpassing 3°C—higher than the previous post-1900 peak of 2.65°C recorded in November 1902. The event is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions to much of Australia, particularly in southern and eastern regions, with below-average rainfall forecast from July to September 2026.

El Niño events are cyclical, typically occurring every 2-7 years, but their impacts are being amplified by climate change. Global temperatures are now about 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought, and bushfires. The BOM and climate experts emphasize that while El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its effects are now supercharged by human-induced warming. This year’s event is particularly notable because 2026 marks the seventh consecutive year with either El Niño or La Niña conditions—a rarity, as historically only about 50% of years are classified as neutral. The last prolonged stretch of non-neutral years occurred from 1969 to 1976.

Key figures, including Monash University’s Andrew Watkins and UNSW’s Andrea Taschetto, highlight the uncertainty surrounding El Niño’s local impacts due to climate change. Watkins notes that while El Niño increases the risk of heat, drought, and fire weather, its effects are harder to predict because of the added moisture in the atmosphere. Taschetto adds that climate models project stronger and more frequent El Niño and La Niña events in the future, though the data record remains short. The BOM’s Felicity Gamble warns that the current El Niño is emerging in ‘unprecedented conditions’ due to rapid ocean heating, making its outcomes less predictable than in the past.

The ABC and Guardian articles diverge slightly in their emphasis on historical context and specific details. ABC provides a deeper analysis of past El Niño events, such as the 2023 event’s influence on Australia’s driest three-month period (August–October) and the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole in exacerbating drought conditions. It also notes that the 2025/26 summer heatwave occurred under weak La Niña conditions, a detail not mentioned in the Guardian. Meanwhile, the Guardian focuses more on the immediate risks posed by climate change, framing El Niño as part of a ‘dangerous double act’ with greenhouse gas emissions, which the Climate Council’s Amanda McKenzie describes as worsening fire and drought risks for farmers and urban communities.

Despite the consensus on El Niño’s declaration and its potential strength, uncertainties remain about its duration and exact impacts. ABC reports that while most El Niño events peak in summer and end in autumn 2027, climate change may prolong their effects, with some models suggesting the current event could last into 2027 or beyond. The Guardian underscores the need for preparedness, given the amplified risks of extreme heat and bushfires. Both sources agree that Australia’s weather is influenced by multiple factors beyond El Niño, including the Indian and Southern Oceans, which currently favor rainfall despite the broader El Niño signal. However, as El Niño develops further, a drier second half of 2026 is widely anticipated.