One Nation targets WA's Secret Harbour by-election amid Labor's vulnerability
Consensus Summary
The Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia on 29 August 2026 has become a critical test of One Nation’s rising political influence, as the party challenges Labor in a seat held since 2007. Both sources agree that the by-election, triggered by the retirement of Labor MP Paul Papalia, could reshape Australia’s political landscape, with One Nation polling strongly in outer suburban and regional areas. The West highlights One Nation’s momentum, suggesting it could win 10 seats in Victoria’s Upper House and up to 17 in the Lower House, while the Guardian emphasizes the seat’s demographic vulnerabilities, including high mortgage stress and low ethnic diversity. Labor is defending the seat with significant spending, but internal polling and past swings suggest a potential loss. The Liberals’ cautious involvement adds complexity, as their decision to contest the by-election reflects broader concerns about One Nation’s appeal, particularly in Andrew Hastie’s federal seat of Canning. The outcome could signal whether One Nation’s support is sustainable beyond protest voting or if Labor can maintain its grip on suburban Australia.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- The by-election for the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour is on 29 August 2026
- Paul Papalia has held the Secret Harbour seat (or its predecessor) since 2007
- One Nation is polling above 36 per cent in the south-east and close to 30 per cent in the west of Victoria
- Secret Harbour is an outer suburban seat with 17 regional and outer suburban seats in Victoria potentially at risk to One Nation
- One Nation has six Federal parliamentarians, four of them in the Senate
- The by-election is being held last week (or a fortnight ago) as a test of One Nation’s momentum
- Labor’s primary vote in Secret Harbour at the 2025 state election was 46.6%
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Labor holds Secret Harbour by 11.5 per cent in latest polling, with One Nation neck and neck
- Roy Morgan poll in early August suggests One Nation could win at least 10 seats in Victoria’s Upper House
- Labor’s internal research in June found One Nation could take as many as 17 regional and outer suburban seats in Victoria’s Lower House
- Andrew Hastie’s Federal seat of Canning overlaps with Secret Harbour, and One Nation’s campaign director James Ashby is targeting him
- One Nation’s fan base is described as organised and quick to mobilise, with a combative and engaged following
- Anthony Albanese has not campaigned in Secret Harbour despite heavy involvement in the WA State election earlier this year
- Labor’s two-party preferred vote in Secret Harbour averages about 60% historically
- A 28.5% swing was recorded against Labor’s primary vote at the 2025 state election in Secret Harbour
- The Liberals are fielding a candidate in the by-election, despite strategic absenteeism being common in such contests
- The field includes 16 candidates, nine more than at the 2025 state election, with more than half leaning right
- Labor is spending $300,000 on its local campaign and faces accusations of pork-barrelling and sidelining its candidate
- Turning Point Australia has registered a how-to-vote card supporting One Nation, even though it is not fielding a candidate
- The Liberals won a 9.8% swing in their first-preference vote when they contested Secret Harbour in 2025
- Labor’s primary vote must not slip 5% lower than its 2025 state election vote (46.6%) to retain the seat
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian states the by-election is on 29 August, while The West refers to it as happening 'last week' or 'a fortnight ago'
- The West mentions a 36 per cent and 30 per cent support for One Nation in Victoria, while the Guardian does not provide specific percentages for Victoria but notes One Nation’s national polling strength
- The West claims Labor holds Secret Harbour by 11.5 per cent in latest polling, while the Guardian states Labor’s two-party preferred vote averages about 60% historically without mentioning the 11.5% margin
- The Guardian notes One Nation gained just 8.4% of the primary vote at the 2025 state election, while The West does not provide this figure
Source Articles
JENI O’DOWD: Secret Harbour by-election tests One Nation as Labor fights to hold key seat on Hastie’s turf
One Nation, Labor and Andrew Hastie face a crucial test in an unlikely election battleground this Saturday.
One Nation is targeting a WA seat in Labor heartland. It could be a defining moment for Australian politics | Narelle Miragliotta for the Conversation
The Secret Harbour byelection has the potential for an electoral upset, given the many characteristics conducive to a One Nation win Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Where once a byelection for a state seat would have attracted little national attention, the remaking of the Australian political landscape in recent months has given such contests greater significance. The next such byelection is on 29 August in the Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour, trigge
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