One Nation wins Secret Harbour WA by-election, signaling political shift in Australia

Consensus Summary

One Nation secured a historic victory in the Western Australian state byelection for the Secret Harbour seat on 29 August 2026, ending Labor’s nearly four-decade hold. The party’s candidate, Luke Herdegen, won with 35.8% of the primary vote, a dramatic swing of 27.4% from One Nation’s 8.4% in the 2025 state election. The final two-party preferred result gave Herdegen a 53.9% to 46.1% victory over Labor’s Georgia Tree, marking a 17.5% swing against the incumbent government. The byelection was triggered by the resignation of long-serving Labor minister Paul Papalia, who had represented the seat since 2007. This result is the first lower house seat One Nation has won in Western Australia and signals a broader shift in Australian politics, with the party now positioning itself as a serious challenger to the major parties.

The Secret Harbour byelection was framed as a test of One Nation’s growing appeal in outer-metropolitan, mortgage-stressed electorates. The seat, located on the southern coastal outskirts of Perth, has long been a Labor stronghold, with the party averaging a 60% two-party preferred vote in recent years. However, economic anxiety—including high mortgage and rental stress—has made it fertile ground for One Nation, which polls strongly in areas with working-class demographics and low ethnic diversity. Analysts noted that the seat’s demographic profile, combined with voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures and perceived government failures, contributed to the upset. Labor’s campaign, which included a $400,000 spending blitz and promises like a new train station in Karnup, ultimately failed to stem the tide of discontent, with internal polling reportedly showing One Nation competitive from the outset.

Key figures in the campaign included One Nation’s Pauline Hanson, who declared the result a warning to Labor and a sign of broader political realignment. Hanson’s WA leader, Rod Caddies, celebrated the victory as evidence that ‘no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country any more.’ Labor’s candidate, Georgia Tree, faced scrutiny for living 61km outside the electorate, a factor Labor sources admitted may have hurt the campaign. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party’s decision to contest the byelection—despite past ‘strategic absenteeism’—reflected its belief in being competitive, though it ultimately finished third with 17.4% of the primary vote. WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas defended his party’s preference strategy, arguing that any Labor loss would benefit the Liberals, a stance criticized by federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, who accused the WA party of ‘waving the white flag’ to One Nation.

Coverage of the byelection diverged in emphasis, with some outlets highlighting One Nation’s grassroots campaigning and candidate appeal, while others focused on Labor’s strategic missteps. The Guardian and ABC both noted Labor’s internal polling had shown One Nation’s strength, yet the party’s hyper-local campaign—including accusations of pork-barrelling and sidelining its candidate—undermined its message. The West Australian and 7News emphasized Pauline Hanson’s direct involvement, including her text messages to Herdegen urging him to ‘go hard’ and her post-victory declarations of a broader political shift. Meanwhile, the ABC provided intimate campaign details, such as Herdegen’s controversial past and the personal fallout with his sister, while the Guardian analyzed the broader ideological implications, including the Liberals’ dilemma over how to respond without appearing to collude with One Nation.

The aftermath of the byelection has left Labor and the Liberals scrambling to respond to One Nation’s rise. Labor Premier Roger Cook conceded the result was a ‘message’ from voters and vowed to listen, though backbenchers reportedly fear it signals third-term jitters. The Liberals, meanwhile, face internal divisions over their strategy, with federal figures like Andrew Hastie pushing for a stronger fightback against One Nation. Federal Labor has also sought to distance itself from the WA result, with PM Anthony Albanese framing One Nation as a ‘dangerous, divisive’ force. The next federal election in 2028 looms as a potential battleground, with One Nation now targeting additional Labor-held seats and the major parties grappling with how to counter its populist appeal. The Secret Harbour result has already prompted calls for a ‘frank and fearless’ review within Labor to understand what went wrong, while the Liberals must decide whether to engage more aggressively with voters or risk further erosion of their support.