One Nation’s inconsistent migration policy targets and internal contradictions
Consensus Summary
One Nation’s migration policy is in chaos as Pauline Hanson and MPs contradict each other over a 130,000 net overseas migration (NOM) cap. SMH reports Hanson deleted a March 1 post targeting 130,000 migrant arrivals (not net migration), while THEWEST confirms her February 2025 Senate statement of a 130,000 NOM cap. Both sources agree the target is higher than historical levels—three times 1993’s 34,822 and a third above 1996’s 97,444—but SMH frames it as a recent shift, while THEWEST calls it long-standing. Confusion arises from exemptions: Farley claims NOM would be 230,000 (130,000 + 100,000 for aged care nurses and PALM workers), but Joyce insists no extra 100,000 will be added. SMH highlights internal party disarray, with One Nation’s website still listing a 130,000 visa cap (not net migration) and MPs like Farley and Joyce offering conflicting explanations. THEWEST adds historical context, noting the 130,000 target is below Labor’s 548,800 peak in 2023 but above 1990s/early 2000s levels, while economists warn it could shrink Australia’s population as temporary migrants leave. The Coalition avoids cutting working holidaymakers, despite their record 225,648 numbers as of June 30 this year, while Labor struggles with its own policy incoherence.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation policy targets a net overseas migration (NOM) cap of 130,000 people a year
- One Nation’s 130,000 NOM target was stated by Hanson on X (Twitter) on Sunday (this weekend) and backed by Barnaby Joyce on Monday morning
- Hanson previously posted a target of 130,000 migrant arrivals (not net migration) on March 1 this year, which was later deleted
- One Nation’s website still lists a 130,000 cap on visas granted each year (not net migration) as of this month
- Net overseas migration was 230,000 last year, with 225,648 working holidaymakers in Australia as of June 30 this year
- One Nation’s 130,000 NOM target is higher than the 97,444 level in 1996 (when Hanson was first elected) and the 34,822 level in 1993
- The record-high NOM was 548,800 in the year to September 2023
- David Farley (One Nation MP) stated that NOM would be 100,000 higher than 130,000 to accommodate aged care nurses and PALM program workers
- The PALM program (started April 2022) includes about 40,000 workers a year, with aged care nurses estimated at 68,000–70,000 a year
- Barnaby Joyce (One Nation) stated there would not be an extra 100,000 migrants on top of the 130,000 NOM target
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Hanson’s deleted March 1 post suggested a 130,000 cap on migrant arrivals (not net migration), with departures of 230,000 last year leading to a net of minus 100,000
- One Nation’s website defines the 130,000 figure as a cap on visas granted, not net migration, leading to confusion
- David Farley suggested One Nation’s migration numbers would be ‘not too different’ from Labor’s due to exemptions for certain visa classes
- Latest government data shows 225,648 working holidaymakers in Australia as of June 30 this year, the highest June data on record
- Opposition home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam ruled out cutting working holidaymaker numbers, citing they are not the ‘big problem’
- Nationals leader Matt Canavan claimed working holidaymakers are not driving high migration numbers
- Andrew Bragg (Coalition) suggested backpackers as a potential way to address migration concerns but was counselled by leadership
- Labor’s Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke pulled a keynote speech this month due to cabinet concerns over policy readiness
- Hanson’s 130,000 NOM target is a third higher than the 97,444 level in 1996 and four times the 34,822 level in 1993
- MacroBusiness economist Leith van Onselen stated One Nation’s 130,000 figure would return migration to mid-2000s levels and cause negative migration as temporary migrants leave
- David Oldfield (co-founder of One Nation) called for a pause on immigration with a ban on family reunions, asylum seekers, and a cut in overseas student numbers
- Oldfield suggested One Nation originally advocated ‘same in, same out’ migration policy
- Oldfield criticized One Nation’s lack of a dedicated immigration spokesperson, leading to policy contradictions
- The Sustainable Australia Party’s 70,000 NOM cap policy received only 0.3% of the Senate vote last year
- The May Budget forecasted NOM of 245,000 for this financial year, easing to 225,000 in 2027-28
- NOM was 240,400 in 2017 when Barnaby Joyce was Nationals deputy prime minister
- NOM surged to 301,200 in 2008 during Kevin Rudd’s first year as prime minister
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- SMH states Hanson’s deleted March 1 post targeted a 130,000 cap on migrant arrivals (not net migration), while THEWEST does not mention this post or its specifics
- SMH implies One Nation’s 130,000 figure is new (defined as policy ‘last week’), while THEWEST states it has been long-standing policy since February 2025
- SMH says Farley suggested One Nation’s migration numbers would be ‘not too different’ from Labor’s, while THEWEST quotes Farley stating NOM would be 100,000 higher than 130,000 to accommodate exemptions
- SMH does not mention Hanson’s February 2025 Senate statement on the 130,000 target, while THEWEST highlights it as a key reference
- THEWEST states One Nation’s 130,000 target is higher than every year of the 1990s and most of the early 2000s, while SMH does not provide historical comparisons
Source Articles
Pauline Hanson’s deleted post deepens One Nation’s migration muddle
While Barnaby Joyce said 130,000 had been One Nation’s migration target “all along”, Pauline Hanson deleted a social media post saying otherwise. The difference is more than 200,000 people.
One Nation’s 130,000 net overseas migration figure a third higher than when Pauline Hanson was first elected
STEPHEN JOHNSON: Pauline Hanson’s 130,000 net overseas migration figure is still historically high even if her colleague David Farley suggested it should be much higher.
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