Citrini research firm's firsthand report on Strait of Hormuz shipping activity under Iranian control

Consensus Summary

A Wall Street research firm called Citrini dispatched an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz on April 2 to assess shipping conditions firsthand. The trip revealed that Iran has established a selective 'tollway' system, allowing only approved vessels to pass while others are blocked. Despite heightened tensions, 14 ships—including Greek, Chinese, and Indian vessels—transited the strait that day, a sharp increase from the previous two weeks’ average of four ships per day. The analyst observed a Greek Dynacom tanker moving at high speed through the center of the strait, defying cautious navigation patterns, while being intercepted by the Omani Coast Guard. Citrini emphasized that current shipping volumes remain dangerously low compared to pre-conflict levels of over 100 ships daily, warning that sustained restrictions could trigger economic disaster. The firm also noted Iran’s strategic interest in maintaining the strait’s functionality as propaganda, contrasting with U.S. military actions that disrupt trade. Both sources confirm the analyst’s unusual preparations—cigars, cash, and nicotine pouches—though no further details differentiate their reports beyond minor phrasing variations.