Federal government plans major NDIS cuts and reforms amid state pushback
Consensus Summary
The federal government is preparing to announce major reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) on Wednesday, aiming to curb its rapid growth from over 10.3% annually to 5-6% to save billions. Key measures include shifting responsibility for children with mild and moderate autism to state-run programs under the $4 billion Thriving Kids initiative, though Queensland has repeatedly opposed this plan. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has framed NDIS cuts as the most significant part of the upcoming budget, while Health Minister Mark Butler will address the National Press Club to outline changes. States express frustration at being kept in the dark, with treasurers describing a recent briefing as vague and raising concerns about being blindsided again. The government insists no new means testing will be introduced, but disability advocates warn cuts will harm participants' ability to live independently. Both sources agree the NDIS is projected to cost $63 billion by 2028-29 and could double to $100 billion by 2036 if growth is not controlled.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Mark Butler will address the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday (2026-04-23) to detail NDIS reforms, including changes to the scheme’s growth rate.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that NDIS cuts will be 'easily the most important part of the savings package' in the upcoming May federal budget.
- The NDIS grew by over 10.3% last year and is projected to cost $63 billion by 2028-29, with the government aiming to reduce annual growth to 5-6%.
- The federal government and states agreed to a $4 billion 'Thriving Kids' program (50/50 cost-sharing) for children with autism and developmental delays, set to launch in October 2026.
- Queensland remains opposed to diverting children with mild and moderate autism from the NDIS to state-run programs, citing insufficient federal funding guarantees.
- The federal government ruled out introducing new means testing for the NDIS, reaffirming universal access rules.
- Mandatory registration for supported living service providers under the NDIS begins on 1 July 2026.
- State treasurers received a briefing on NDIS reforms on Tuesday (2026-04-22) but described it as 'light on detail,' raising concerns about being blindsided again.
- The NDIS Sustainability Taskforce, led by former Treasury official Anthea Long, was established within the health department to drive budget savings.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Western Australia, as chair of the Council of the Australian Federation, communicated concerns from disability ministers about structural NDIS changes in recent days.
- Bill Shorten, former Labor MP and architect of the NDIS, expressed concerns about the reforms.
- The federal government established a 'razor gang' (NDIS Sustainability Taskforce) to drive budget savings, led by Anthea Long.
- Victoria’s agreement with the Thriving Kids program is close to finalization, while Queensland has yet to sign on.
- Mark Butler stated any changes would be through a process of co-design, with all states agreeing to a 'package deal' of increased hospital funding in exchange for NDIS reforms.
- Queensland Disability Services Minister Amanda Camm explicitly stated, 'The federal government's plan to walk away from their responsibilities to children and families is failing kids, not thriving kids.'
- Shadow NDIS Minister Melissa McIntosh accused Chalmers of 'war-gaming' billions of dollars of cuts 'behind closed doors.'
- NSW Premier Chris Minns warned against removing people from the NDIS if it risks leaving them without supports, stating, 'We can't have a situation where people are knocked off the NDIS, and then the state provides the service.'
- People with Disability Australia (PwDA) launched a campaign opposing NDIS cuts, arguing that for every $1 invested, $2.25 is contributed to the economy.
- The NDIS is forecast to double in expense to $100 billion by 2036 if growth is not slowed, making it the single most expensive Commonwealth program.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- The Guardian states Chalmers briefed state treasurers on Tuesday, while the ABC notes state treasurers described the briefing as 'light on detail' but does not explicitly confirm the date of the briefing.
- The Guardian mentions that Queensland is yet to sign on to the Thriving Kids program, while the ABC states Queensland remains opposed to the plan but does not explicitly confirm whether an agreement is pending.
- The Guardian reports that Victoria’s agreement with Thriving Kids is 'close to being finalised,' but the ABC does not provide an update on Victoria’s status beyond Queensland’s opposition.
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