One Nation's rise threatens Victoria's political landscape ahead of November election
Consensus Summary
The two articles analyze the surging popularity of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party ahead of Victoria’s November 28, 2026, state election, where polling suggests it could win up to 30 seats in the 88-member lower house, potentially becoming the second-largest party. Both sources agree One Nation is targeting working-class suburbs in Melbourne’s outer north and west, as well as regional areas like Gippsland and Shepparton, by exploiting grievances over immigration, infrastructure, and crime. The election could result in a hung parliament, with One Nation either forming a coalition with the Liberal-National Coalition or forcing Labor into a minority government. Premier Jacinta Allan has acknowledged One Nation is siphoning votes from Labor, while the Coalition remains divided on how to respond, with some Liberals suggesting tactical alliances. The rise of One Nation mirrors global populist trends, and its success in Victoria could signal broader challenges for Australia’s political establishment.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- One Nation is polling at 25% primary vote in Victoria (Freshwater Strategy poll in Herald Sun, June 2026)
- Victoria’s Legislative Assembly has 88 lower house seats, with Labor currently holding the majority
- One Nation could win dozens of seats in Victoria’s lower house, potentially becoming the second-largest party behind Labor
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 28, 2026
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is targeting working-class suburbs in Melbourne’s north and west, including Melton, Sydenham, Pakenham, Bass, and Hastings
- One Nation is also threatening seats in regional Victoria, such as Murray Plains, Gippsland East, Shepparton, and Euroa
- Federal One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce declared One Nation is now a 'movement' and not an aberration (June 14, 2026)
- Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has acknowledged One Nation is taking a 'slice' of Labor’s vote
- The Liberal-National Coalition currently holds 29 seats in Victoria’s Legislative Assembly
- One Nation’s rise is being compared to populist movements in the US (Trump), UK (Farage), and Europe
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Polling shows Labor on 23% primary vote, Coalition on 27% (Freshwater Strategy poll in Herald Sun, June 2026)
- Former ALP pollster Kos Samaras said One Nation could become a key player in a hung parliament, with outcomes including a Labor minority government or a One Nation-Coalition government
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has framed One Nation as part of the 'three right-wing parties' and claims they vote against working people’s interests
- Liberal frontbencher Tony Pasin suggested working 'hand in glove' with One Nation to carve up seats, though Liberal leader Angus Taylor ruled this out
- Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson faces an uphill battle, with One Nation’s rise complicating her path to government
- Liberal insiders believe they can win by finishing in the top two in each seat, with preferences directed their way
- A Victorian leader for One Nation is expected to emerge in the coming weeks or days
- Labor MPs have discussed challenging Premier Jacinta Allan’s leadership due to cratering polling numbers
- Pollster Kos Samaras initially predicted One Nation could win 12 seats in March 2026, but revised projections now suggest up to 30 seats
- Trades Hall Council secretary Luke Hilakari stated One Nation could become the second-largest party in Victoria’s parliament, potentially the dominant coalition partner
- A 67-page report titled *Antidote* by Oscar Kapsi-Crutchett argues One Nation’s path to power leads through the working class, targeting production workers, service workers, and small business owners
- Pauline Hanson stated she would be willing to partner with the Coalition to remove Labor’s administration, citing record debt and crime as key issues
- Jim Reed of Resolve Political Monitor says One Nation is stealing votes from both major parties, not just the Coalition
- Hanson blames 'mass immigration' for overburdened infrastructure and services, a key theme in outer suburban and regional areas
- A Labor source anonymously stated the outlook for Labor has deteriorated from 'bad to catastrophic' in some regions
- Nationals leader Danny O’Brien claimed the party has been written off before but has always prevailed due to rural support
- The election could produce a hung parliament where One Nation is the majority partner in a Coalition-led government
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- ABC states One Nation is polling at 25% primary vote (Herald Sun poll), while The Age does not provide a specific primary vote percentage for One Nation in its article
- ABC reports Kos Samaras initially said One Nation could win 'dozens' of seats, while The Age cites his March prediction of 12 seats (now revised to 30)
- ABC suggests Labor is focusing on cost-of-living support and workers' rights to counter One Nation, while The Age emphasizes Labor’s strategy to directly confront One Nation as an anti-establishment force
- ABC notes Liberal leader Angus Taylor ruled out working with One Nation, while The Age implies the Liberal Party is internally divided on how to engage with One Nation’s voters
- The Age states One Nation could wipe all established parties off Victoria’s regional and rural map, while ABC does not explicitly state this scenario but highlights severe risks to Nationals MPs
Source Articles
How One Nation could disrupt Australia's progressive stronghold
The idea that One Nation could come close to the government benches was absurd six months ago, but it is a prospect Victorian Labor MPs and insiders are increasingly discussing.
An orange wave is breaking over Victoria. Can Labor hold back the populist tide?
Fears that One Nation could win as many as 30 seats at the Victorian election have sparked a new battle plan within Labor to fight Pauline Hanson’s party.