Labor’s budget backlash: primary vote slump, broken promises, and shifting voter preferences
Consensus Summary
The Australian federal government’s primary vote dropped to 29% after its May 2026 budget, which broke election promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. Polling by Resolve Political Monitor shows 36% of voters now view Labor negatively due to the broken pledges, while support shifted to One Nation (24%) rather than the Coalition (23%). Angus Taylor overtook Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister (33-30), reversing a February lead of 38-22. Key budget measures like cutting the NDIS by $36 billion, removing the 50% CGT discount, and restricting negative gearing received mixed support, with high undecided rates. Younger Australians and renters were less hostile than older voters, property owners, and investors. Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged the backlash but defended the budget’s focus on intergenerational equity, particularly first-home ownership. Albanese’s and Chalmers’ likeability ratings plummeted to -13 and -9, respectively, while Pauline Hanson emerged as the most likeable politician (+12).
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Labor’s primary vote slumped 3 percentage points to 29% after the budget, with Coalition support steady at 23% and One Nation rising 2 points to 24%.
- 36% of voters said their view of Labor was damaged by breaking promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, while 14% said it improved and 31% said it didn’t change.
- Angus Taylor leads Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister 33-30, with 37% undecided, after Albanese’s lead was 38-22 in February.
- Pauline Hanson has a net likeability rating of +12, Angus Taylor +11, while Albanese is at -13 and Jim Chalmers at -9.
- The poll surveyed 1,800 voters from May 13–16 with a margin of error of ±2.3%.
- 39% support cutting the NDIS by $36 billion over four years, 24% oppose, and 37% are undecided.
- 36% support removing the 50% CGT discount, 21% oppose, and 42% are undecided.
- 35% support restricting negative gearing, 21% oppose, and 44% are undecided.
- Jim Chalmers stated in an ABC Insiders interview that the budget was designed to boost first-home ownership for younger Australians.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The masthead chose not to publish the two-party-preferred vote due to preference distribution difficulties from One Nation’s surge.
- Albanese’s ‘good/very good’ job rating is 34%, down 3 points, with 56% rating him ‘poor/very poor’ and 10% undecided.
- Taylor’s ‘good/very good’ rating is 37%, down 4 points, with 29% rating him ‘poor/very poor’ and 34% undecided.
Contradictions
Conflicting information between sources:
- No contradictions found between the two sources.
Source Articles
Labor’s primary vote slumps after broken promise budget
The government was marked down by voters for breaking election vows not to touch tax breaks for negative gearing or capital gains, with 36 per cent saying their view of Labor had been damaged.
Labor’s primary vote slumps after broken promise budget
The government was marked down by voters for breaking election vows not to touch tax breaks for negative gearing or capital gains, with 36 per cent saying their view of Labor had been damaged.