Australia’s coastal flooding risks, economic losses, and property threats by 2100
Consensus Summary
Both the Guardian and ABC report on Australia’s escalating coastal flooding risks due to rising sea levels, projecting severe economic and property damage by 2100. Sea levels have already risen by over 22cm since 1900, with an additional 14cm expected by 2050, increasing flood frequency and permanent inundation. Over 267,000 coastal properties and 2 million hectares of land are projected to be damaged, with Queensland, NSW, and Western Australia facing the highest risks. The Guardian highlights Peter Lake’s farm in the Clarence Valley, which has flooded repeatedly since 2009, illustrating shrinking safe land. Both sources cite a Climate Council report estimating $855.1bn in economic losses, driven by a 2.7C global temperature rise by 2100. The ABC emphasizes Cyclone Alfred’s impacts, including $1.36 billion in insurance claims and ongoing coastal erosion, while the Guardian focuses on agricultural losses affecting 619,713 hectares of farmland. Both agree on the urgency of adaptation but differ slightly on specific property counts and economic figures, underscoring the need for national planning to address rising costs and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Sea levels have risen by more than 22cm globally since 1900
- An additional 14cm rise in sea levels is expected in Australia by 2050
- By the end of the century, over 267,000 coastal properties will be damaged by flooding
- By 2100, 2m hectares (4.9m acres) of Australian land will be damaged by flooding
- Queensland faces 93,000 properties at risk of damage due to sea level rise
- The Gold Coast is Australia’s most exposed urban area with projected economic losses of $84.4bn
- Global temperature is projected to increase by 2.7C by the end of the century
- By 2100, $274.3bn in property losses and $580.7bn in land-use damages are projected
- 619,713 hectares (1.5m acres) of farming land is projected to be damaged by flooding by 2100
- The Climate Council report projects $855.1bn in economic losses Australia-wide by 2100 due to coastal flooding
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Peter Lake’s cattle farm in the Clarence Valley, NSW, borders the Coldstream River and has flooded five times since 2009, with only 15 acres flood-free in a major 2022 flood
- In 2007, Peter Lake moved to the Clarence Valley knowing he was 'buying in flood country'
- The Climate Council report was co-authored by Prof Tom Kompas at the University of Melbourne, with modelling based on 239 hotspots
- The report does not account for coastal erosion or significant ice sheet melt in its $855.1bn estimate
- NSW (71,210 properties) and Western Australia (51,366 properties) are the other two states with the greatest number of homes at risk
- The Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Melbourne are the metropolitan areas expected to be worst affected
- The report uses the RCP4.5 climate scenario projecting a 2.7C global temperature increase by 2100
- Storm surges and swell from Cyclone Alfred in March last year caused severe coastal changes on the Gold Coast
- More than 125,000 insurance claims totaling $1.36 billion were made after Cyclone Alfred last year
- A 90-metre seawall has been approved for The Entrance North, a coastal village in NSW’s Central Coast
- Victoria is the only jurisdiction where property damage costs exceed land-use damage costs
- The research highlights a $214 billion damage bill for Queensland due to sea level rise
- The UN projects warming could reach up to 2.6C by the end of the century under current policies
- The research underscores the impact on recreational areas, parks, and beaches, not just properties
- The Land and Environment Court granted consent for a 90-metre seawall at The Entrance North, NSW
- The economic assessment forms the basis of a Climate Council report, which highlights the tripling of 'once-in-a-century' flood events every 10cm of sea level rise
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian states $855.1bn in economic losses by 2100, while ABC states $850bn in damage costs by 2100
- The Guardian lists 93,157 properties at risk in Queensland, while ABC lists 93,000 properties at risk
- The Guardian mentions $274.3bn in property losses and $580.7bn in land-use damages, while ABC mentions $274 billion in property losses and $580 billion in land-use damages (minor rounding differences)
- The Guardian states 2.7C warming by the end of the century, while ABC also states 2.7C but additionally mentions the UN’s projection of up to 2.6C under current policies
Source Articles
Peter’s farm is on ‘flood country’. As Australia’s sea levels rise, safe land is vanishing and costs are huge
Climate Council forecasts more than 267,000 coastal properties will be damaged by flooding by 2100, costing hundreds of billions of dollars Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast When grazier Peter Lake moved to the Clarence Valley in the New South Wales northern rivers region in 2007, he knew was “buying in flood country with … eyes open”. His cattle farm, about halfway between Yamba and Grafton, borders the Coldstream River and has flooded five times since 2009. Continue
Australia's love for coastal living faces $850b reckoning
Australian researchers find more than 267,000 coastal properties and 2 million hectares of land across the country will face flood damage by 2100.
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