Matt Canavan’s bid for Capricornia seat and potential One Nation showdown
Consensus Summary
With preselection looming, the next steps are clear: Canavan must secure the support of the Capricornia branch of the LNP, while Ashby’s intentions remain uncertain. If Ashby does run, the seat could become a battleground for regional Australia’s future, pitting Canavan’s established local ties against One Nation’s disruptive energy. The 2028 election now looms as a pivotal moment, with the outcome in Capricornia potentially reshaping the balance of power in Queensland. For Canavan, the risk is high—losing his Senate seat or failing to win the lower house could jeopardize his leadership. Yet, as he told ABC Radio, the moment demands action: ‘I just have to be there in the trenches with them.’
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Matt Canavan announced his intention to run for preselection in the lower house seat of Capricornia, vacated by retiring Nationals MP Michelle Landry.
- Michelle Landry formally announced her retirement in late October, ending speculation about her political future.
- Matt Canavan became Nationals leader in March after David Littleproud stepped down.
- Canavan currently holds the second spot on the Coalition’s Queensland Senate ticket, risking his Senate seat if One Nation performs well in the upper house at the 2028 election.
- One Nation’s James Ashby is considering running for Capricornia, potentially setting up a high-profile showdown with Canavan.
- Canavan lives in Yeppoon, the electorate’s key regional hub, and has raised five children there.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Canavan stated he would ‘give it my all’ and risked losing his Senate seat if One Nation gains traction in Queensland’s upper house.
- Bridget McKenzie framed the potential One Nation fight as a chance to offer Australians a ‘genuine choice’ and noted the Nationals have not lost a seat since the 2007 election.
- One Nation opened a branch in Yeppoon late last year to ‘help shape the future of One Nation in the region’.
- Canavan described the next election as a ‘referendum on net zero’ and emphasized the need to ‘unleash Australia’s energy resources,’ including coal, oil, gas, and uranium.
- The Nationals abandoned their commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050 last year, with the Liberals following suit.
- Canavan said he had been mulling the decision since Landry approached him ‘a few months ago’ (not specified in verified dates).
- The LNP holds Capricornia with a 5.8 per cent margin, according to ABC reporting.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian states Michelle Landry announced her retirement ‘last month,’ while THEWEST and ABC say she did so in ‘late October.’
Source Articles
Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan could face One Nation showdown after ending speculation on Capricornia tilt
Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan has officially announced his tilt for the lower house —ending long speculation he is vying to take the central Queensland seat of Capricornia.
Matt Canavan enters Capricornia race to set up One Nation showdown
The Nationals leader has officially thrown his hat in the ring for the lower house seat of Capricornia, setting up a potential contest with One Nation's party director James Ashby.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan to run for lower house seat in possible showdown with One Nation’s James Ashby
Tilt comes after Michelle Landry announced she will not recontest her Queensland seat of Capricornia Get our daily political email , free app or daily news podcast The Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, will run in a lower house Queensland seat at the next federal election, in a move that may see him face off with Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff. The announcement follows the retirement of the Capricornia MP Michelle Landry, and could result in a contest against James Ashby in a major battle for reg
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