Liberal Party retains Nepean byelection amid One Nation surge in Victoria
Consensus Summary
The Nepean byelection in Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, triggered by the resignation of Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth in February 2026, served as a critical test for the Liberal Party ahead of the November state election. The Liberal candidate, Anthony Marsh, retained the seat with 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.5% of the two-candidate preferred vote, despite a 9.6% drop in primary support since 2022. One Nation’s Darren Hercus secured 24.7% of the primary vote, while independent Tracee Hutchison polled 21.3%, reflecting a surge in support for minor parties. Labor did not contest the byelection, which covers affluent coastal suburbs alongside lower socioeconomic areas like Rosebud West. Early voting exceeded 50% of the electorate, and analysts noted One Nation’s strong performance in working-class booths as a warning for both major parties. Liberal leader Jess Wilson acknowledged the result as a mixed message, emphasizing the need to earn voter trust before November, while One Nation’s gains align with its rising popularity in Victoria following its success in South Australia’s March election. The byelection underscored the fragmented political landscape, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with major parties and a potential shift toward populist alternatives.
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Key details reported by multiple sources:
- Anthony Marsh won the Nepean byelection for the Liberal Party with 38.49% (or 38.5%) of the primary vote and 63.5% (or 63.4%) of the two-candidate preferred vote.
- One Nation’s Darren Hercus received 24.69% (or 24.7%) of the primary vote in the Nepean byelection.
- Independent Tracee Hutchison received 21.31% (or 21.3%) of the primary vote in the Nepean byelection.
- The Nepean byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth in February 2026.
- Labor did not field a candidate in the Nepean byelection.
- The Nepean electorate includes wealthy suburbs like Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as lower socioeconomic areas like Capel Sound (formerly Rosebud West).
- The byelection was held on May 2, 2026, with early voting showing over 50% of the electorate had voted before polling day.
- The Liberal Party held the Nepean seat for all but four years since its inception, with Sam Groth winning it back from Labor in 2022 by a 6.4% margin.
- Anthony Marsh, the Liberal candidate, is a former Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor and joined the Liberal Party weeks before the byelection.
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2026, and the Liberals need to win 16 seats to form government.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- Pauline Hanson campaigned alongside Darren Hercus but was absent on polling day, with Hercus stating voters would prefer her over him.
- Liberal campaign materials argued that a vote for One Nation was a 'win for Jacinta Allan' in November.
- Benjamin Moffitt, a Monash University lecturer, estimated 10-15% of Labor voters defected to One Nation in Nepean.
- Liberal insiders were 'disturbed' by One Nation’s performance, fearing similar results in other seats with working-class voters.
- Liberal deputy David Southwick stated that the result was a 'yes for Jess' (Jess Wilson) in the context of her leadership.
- The Age reported that One Nation candidate Darren Hercus was advised to use personal bank details for donations, which One Nation disputed.
- Liberal candidate Marsh was investigated by Victoria’s transport department for unauthorised roadworks during a campaign stunt.
- Former Labor strategist Kosmos Samaras noted that One Nation outperformed the Liberals in booths like Rosebud and Tootgarook.
- Liberal leader Jess Wilson refused to comment on whether the party would preference One Nation in November.
- The ABC’s Antony Green called the byelection for Marsh at 8:20pm, stating preferences would ensure his victory even if One Nation finished second.
- Liberal insiders feared losing Nepean and were preparing for a long count, with some predicting a One Nation win.
- Roy Morgan polling showed One Nation leading the Liberal/National coalition on primary vote (36% vs 28%) in Nepean, but the coalition narrowly led on two-party preferred (50.5% vs 49.5%).
- Pauline Hanson stated that One Nation would 'go after' Victoria in the November election, calling it a 'basket case'.
- Liberal candidate Marsh’s campaign focused on community development and local infrastructure, while One Nation’s Darren Hercus emphasized small business support and anti-establishment sentiment.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The Guardian and ABC report One Nation’s primary vote as 24.69% or 24.7%, while The Age reports it as 24.69% (consensus), but The Guardian also mentions 24.7% in another article, so no true contradiction here. (Note: This is a clarification, not a contradiction.)
- The Guardian and ABC state the Liberal primary vote dropped by 9.6%, while The Age reports a drop from 48.1% (Groth’s 2022 vote) to 38.49%, which aligns with a 9.6% drop, so no contradiction.
- The Guardian and ABC describe One Nation’s performance as a 'warning' for the Liberals, while The Age frames it as a 'kick up the backside' but not enough to lose the seat, reflecting differing tones rather than factual contradictions.
- The Guardian and ABC mention that One Nation outperformed the Liberals in Rosebud and Tootgarook booths, but do not provide exact vote numbers for these booths, so no direct contradiction exists.
- The Age reports that One Nation’s Darren Hercus was advised to use personal bank details for donations, which One Nation disputed, but no other source confirms or denies this claim.
Source Articles
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