Victorian 2026 election: Labor's collapsing support and Coalition-One Nation rise

Consensus Summary

The Victorian state election on November 28, 2026, is shaping up as a historic three-way contest, with Labor’s support collapsing to record lows while the Coalition and One Nation surge ahead. The Age’s Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted between November 2 and November 7, found Labor’s primary vote at just 22%, matching its lowest point in nearly two years. Meanwhile, the Coalition’s support rose to 30%, though still below its December peak of 39%, and One Nation’s influence remains steady. The Guardian’s DemosAU poll, published by the Herald Sun, paints an even grimmer picture for Labor, with its primary vote at 18%—trailing One Nation (21%) and the Coalition (33%)—and the Greens gaining three points to 17% since September. Both outlets agree the election is now a tight race, with Labor’s long-standing dominance as Victoria’s governing party since 2018 under severe threat.

Labor’s decline stems from a combination of leadership struggles and shifting voter priorities. Daniel Allan became premier in July 2026 as Victoria’s third leader in three years, inheriting a party with 27% support, but his tenure failed to stabilize the party. Ben Carroll, who succeeded Allan, has seen his personal ratings plummet, with likeability dropping from -11 in October to -16, while Coalition leader Jess Wilson’s approval rose to 24%. The Guardian reports internal Labor frustration, with MPs dismissing Carroll’s crime-focused strategy—such as a $204 million youth offender program and $70 million for police reservists—as a misstep that failed to resonate with voters. The Age notes that Labor’s scare tactics against a Coalition-One Nation government have backfired, with nearly half of voters (48%) now comfortable with such an alliance.

Key figures in the election are locked in a battle of messaging and strategy. Carroll has refused a head-to-head debate with Wilson, citing One Nation’s poll standing, while Wilson initially rejected sharing a stage with One Nation’s Warren Pickering. The Guardian highlights Carroll’s defensive stance, where he repeatedly avoided addressing the DemosAU poll’s dire findings, instead framing the election as a choice between his government and a Coalition-One Nation administration that would 'shrink the economy.' Wilson, meanwhile, has committed to tougher crime policies, including Aidan’s Law, named after a 22-year-old fatally stabbed at Mernda station after intervening in a robbery involving a 14-year-old. The Age emphasizes the unpredictability of seat outcomes, with some contests featuring four or five candidates, while the Guardian notes the Victorian Electoral Commission’s plan to use a two-candidate-preferred count on election night.

The two outlets diverge on specific polling details and internal Labor dynamics. The Age’s Resolve survey shows Labor at 22%, a figure it describes as a 'nadir' but still higher than the Guardian’s DemosAU poll, which Labor MPs dismiss as an 'outlier.' The Age also highlights that the Coalition is poised to win three-quarters of the votes from the third-place party, likely One Nation, securing a majority, while the Guardian focuses on the broader caucus unrest and strategic missteps. Both agree that Labor’s campaign is in freefall, but the Guardian’s sources suggest deeper internal divisions, with MPs blaming Carroll for the party’s collapse. The Age, however, frames the issue as a broader failure of Labor’s messaging and voter disillusionment over the past six years, including the COVID-19 response.

One unresolved issue is the role of One Nation, particularly the controversy surrounding its former campaign director, Sean Black. The Guardian reports that Black, jailed in 2018 for rape and rehired in 2020, was sacked by Pauline Hanson earlier this year amid political pressure. Hanson denied ongoing ties to Black, but the Age and 60 Minutes had previously reported his continued influence. Both outlets also note that the election’s outcome hinges on preference flows, with the Coalition favored to benefit from Labor and Greens voters in key seats. The Age suggests the election remains unpredictable in some regions, while the Guardian emphasizes the potential for a Coalition majority if current trends hold. Both agree that the next few weeks will be critical, with Labor’s options narrowing as November 28 approaches.