Israel’s political deadlock and president’s choice to form new government

Consensus Summary

Israel’s political crisis reached a pivotal moment as President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, with forming a new government after a deadlocked election left neither Eisenkot nor incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a clear majority. The decision follows weeks of negotiations and consultations, with Eisenkot’s appointment set to be finalized in a ceremony on Sunday at the presidential residence in Jerusalem. The election, held on 27 October, resulted in Netanyahu’s coalition losing its majority, dropping from 68 to 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Eisenkot’s bloc secured 48 seats. Neither side could govern alone, leaving Arab-majority parties—holding a combined 19 seats—as potential kingmakers in the fragile political landscape.

The election’s outcome reflected a seismic shift in Israeli politics, driven in part by a dramatic surge in voter turnout among Arab Israelis, who constitute about 20% of the population. Turnout in these communities more than doubled to approximately 80%, a development that reshaped the political dynamics and forced both major blocs to confront the growing influence of Palestinian-Israeli voters. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who served from 2015 to 2019, has positioned himself as a unifying figure, contrasting with Netanyahu’s divisive tenure. However, his path to power remains uncertain, as key parties, including some ultra-Orthodox factions and hardline right-wing groups, have expressed opposition to his leadership or any coalition that includes Arab-Israeli parties.

Eisenkot’s bid for power has been bolstered by endorsements from Arab-majority parties, including the Joint List and Ra’am, which together hold 19 seats—11 and 8, respectively. The Guardian reports that Eisenkot received their support during consultations with President Herzog, though tensions persist over his demands that any coalition partners recognize Israel as a Jewish state, accept compulsory national service, and denounce Hamas. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s allies, including far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have accused Arab-Israeli parties of election fraud and foreign interference, with ABC citing claims that 100 million shekels ($45.1 million AUD) was funneled into Arab communities to boost turnout. These allegations have been rejected by Israel’s Central Election Committee, which ratified the results on Wednesday, but they continue to fuel political divisions.

The two news outlets diverge on specific details, particularly regarding seat counts and the composition of Eisenkot’s bloc. The Guardian emphasizes Eisenkot’s 48-seat total, while ABC notes that Likud won 27 seats and Yashar 21, suggesting a broader ‘change’ camp that includes additional parties holding a combined 67 seats with Arab-Israeli allies. Additionally, ABC highlights the role of Yair Lapid, a former prime minister, as a potential new Knesset speaker, a prospect not mentioned in the Guardian. Both sources agree that Eisenkot has 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, but the ABC underscores the challenges posed by internal divisions within the anti-Netanyahu camp, particularly the refusal of Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Liberman to work with Arab-Israeli parties.

As the political wrangling intensifies, the immediate focus is on Eisenkot’s ability to secure enough support to form a stable government. The Guardian notes that Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity until a new coalition is formed or fresh elections are called, while ABC reports that power plays in the Knesset could begin as early as next week, including the installation of a new speaker. The unresolved question is whether Eisenkot can bridge the gaps between secular and religious parties, ultra-Orthodox factions, and Arab-Israeli allies—all while countering Netanyahu’s claims of electoral manipulation. If no agreement is reached within the allotted time, Israel could face another round of elections, further destabilizing the country’s already fractured political system.