One Nation’s electoral breakthrough in South Australia and its political implications

Consensus Summary

The South Australian election in March 2025 marked a historic breakthrough for One Nation, which surged from 2.5% of the primary vote in 2022 to 22%, securing four lower house seats and three upper house seats. This performance left the Liberals with just five seats, barely retaining official opposition status, while Labor’s Peter Malinauskas won re-election with a commanding 33-seat majority. The rise of One Nation—described by Pauline Hanson as a protest movement against mainstream parties—coincided with economic anxieties, including soaring oil prices and cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by the Iran war. Analysts warn the party’s success could destabilize the traditional Labor-Liberal duopoly, particularly if economic conditions worsen, with inflation fears now reaching double digits according to Treasury projections. While One Nation’s stability remains unproven, its narrow defeat of the Liberals in key seats raises questions about future parliamentary dynamics, including potential constitutional challenges to opposition status if the party gains more seats. Critics highlight the party’s divisive rhetoric and historical volatility, while supporters argue it reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with established parties.