Heavy rain, flooding, and storms hit south-east Australia in early October 2026
Consensus Summary
As of the latest reports, the weather system is expected to gradually weaken by Sunday, though lingering showers and storms may persist in Gippsland and south-east NSW. The Guardian notes that conditions should clear in time for Sunday’s NRL grand final in Sydney, with only minor morning showers anticipated. The ABC suggests that further rain is possible in the coming weeks, signaling a potential shift toward wetter conditions as summer approaches. However, the immediate focus remains on managing the current flood risks, with authorities urging residents to avoid floodwaters and prepare for possible power outages and transport disruptions. The situation remains dynamic, and additional flood warnings may be issued as rivers continue to rise.
✓ Verified by 2+ sources
Key details reported by multiple sources:
- A Flood Watch was issued for up to 16 catchment regions covering Central, North East, and Gippsland in Victoria.
- Up to 150mm of rain is forecast for parts of Gippsland, with isolated falls possible in elevated regions.
- Rainfall totals of 25-50mm are expected over much of Victoria over the coming days.
- Melbourne received 20mm of rain in one hour between about 2 and 3pm on Thursday afternoon.
- A low-pressure system is causing heavy rain and storms across Victoria, NSW, and SA, with the heaviest falls expected in Gippsland and the Otways.
- Over 100mm of rain has already fallen in parts of the Otways.
- Severe thunderstorms with flash flooding, gusty winds, and hail are possible across Victoria and NSW.
- The event follows the second-driest September on record for parts of south-east Australia.
- September 2026 was the second-warmest on record for Australia, with temperatures 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal in many areas.
- A dairy farm in Maffra, Victoria, with 600 cows, was flooded due to heavy rainfall.
- The State Emergency Service (SES) in Victoria received 200 calls for help since midday the day before the article was published.
- Power outages affected 3,000 customers in the Heathcote area of Victoria.
Points of Difference
Details reported by only one source:
- The second-warmest September on record included temperatures 5C above the long-term mean in parts of the interior and south, with Thredbo experiencing more than 1.5C warmer temperatures than the previous-warmest September.
- Well over 50mm of rain could fall between Thursday and Sunday over parts of Victoria, with 20 to 50mm expected in parts of NSW, SA, and the western interior.
- A Flood Watch was issued for up to 16 catchment regions covering Gippsland, North East, and Central Victoria.
- The October 2023 floods were referenced as a cautionary example for unexpected water movement.
- Canberra was noted to have temperatures 2.35C above its long-term mean in September.
- The rain could be equivalent to three months’ worth of rain in areas recording up to 150mm.
- The weather system is expected to clear in time for Sunday’s NRL grand final in Sydney, with lingering showers possible in the morning but drying out by afternoon.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s Dean Narramore predicted 30 to 50mm of rain for Melbourne over the coming days.
- Six-hourly rain totals up to 70mm are forecast in parts of Victoria, with 24-hour totals between 50 and 80mm likely in Gippsland.
- A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for parts of NSW, including the Illawarra, south coast, central and southern tablelands, and central west slopes and plains.
- Only one official flood warning was in place for the Bunyip River in Victoria, but more were expected to be issued.
Where the reporting differs
Details that conflict, or appear in only some outlets:
- The ABC states that 20mm of rain fell in Melbourne between 2 and 3pm on Thursday afternoon, while the Guardian does not mention this specific timeframe or amount for Melbourne.
- The Guardian mentions that 50mm of rain could fall in some Sydney suburbs, but the ABC does not explicitly mention Sydney receiving 50mm, only that at least 25mm is expected south of a line from Adelaide to Sydney.
- The ABC reports that 10 to 20mm of rain is the average for the entire month in the WA interior, while the Guardian does not provide this specific comparison.
Source Articles
South-east faces flooding, storms after second-driest September on record
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BoM expects falls of up to 90mm in parts of Victoria, as severe weather system continues to sweep the southern states A severe weather system continues to dump heavy rain into sodden riverine catchments across Victoria, sparking widespread warnings of transport disruption and delays. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a flood watch for most of Victoria including the north-east, central, south-west and north-west, as well as parts of Gippsland. Continue reading...
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